Analysis: Young voters and White women without college degrees played an important role for in Democrats' success during the 2022 midterms.
by the Democratic data analytics firm Catalist provides a comprehensive analysis of the 2022 election. It confirms some earlier conclusions about the midterms but also includes some findings that run counter to conventional thinking.
About 111 million people cast ballots in 2022, compared with 118 million in 2018. But as the Catalist report notes, “Turnout matched or even exceeded 2018 turnout in the most highly contested elections in the country.” The report is the latest in a series produced by the liberal organization and is based on its extensive voter file maintained over many years. Though the firm works on behalf of liberal groups and causes, its election reports have been widely plumbed by independent analysts.
The Catalist analysis produced a surprising finding: In these contested races, Democrats made their biggest gains among White women without college degrees. Their support for Democratic candidates rose from 40 percent in 2020 to 45 percent in 2022, based on the two-party split of the vote. A majority of White women with college degrees, 57 percent, backed Democrats, and their support rose by a point in the last midterm election.
One other finding bears noting for 2024. Turnout in suburban areas was higher in 2022 than in 2018. Support for Democrats in suburban areas fell a bit nationwide, but in the contested races in the states where presidential elections are decided, it held steady at 54 percent. Nearly all of the most contested states from 2020 and 2022 will be competitive again in 2024.
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