Analysis: The Kavanaugh fight defined the 2018 election — until it didn’t
Whether that’s the case is unclear. Yes, the races narrowed as the election approached but, with the exception of former Florida senator Bill Nelson, the races Graham isolated — in Missouri, Indiana and North Dakota — all took place in heavily red states. What’s more, each of the contests was at least 10 points closer than Trump’s victory two years prior.
Exit polling asked voters if the incumbent senators’ votes on the Kavanaugh nomination were a factor in their vote. Most voters in Indiana, Missouri and Montana said the Kavanaugh fight was a factor; about half in each state said it was an important factor. And among those who considered it a factor, important or not, more voters backed the Republican Senate candidates.
By itself, the data above suggest that the Kavanaugh vote made the difference in ousting the incumbent Democrats. Until you realize that the third listed incumbent senator, Jon Tester , won. The Kavanaugh vote was just as commonly cited as a factor in voters’ choices in his state, and he lost those voters by wider margins than did former Missouri senator Claire McCaskill. But he won anyway.This is a challenge with exit polls of this sort: It’s hard to figure out which way the causality points.
Graham’s declaration that the senators who lost did so because of the Kavanaugh vote was meant specifically to be useful in moments such as the one in which we now find ourselves. He wanted the Senate’s remaining Democrats to feel as though pushing back against a Supreme Court nominee would pose a risk to their political careers. He wanted the next fight — the one that’s approaching — to unfold on more favorable ground.
The lesson of 2018, though, is something different. It’s that the political establishment can be roiled by a deeply contentious and polarizing fight over the highest court in the country, and voters may nonetheless cast their votes while considering their concerns about health care, the economy and the incumbent president.
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