Which cities are thriving in this new era? We have compiled a rough-and-ready index
In most cities the twin blows of covid and geopolitical tension have proved more of a problem. In order to assess which are thriving in this new era,has compiled a rough-and-ready index. It scrutinises a sample of ten locations, looking at changes in four measures—population, economic growth, office vacancies and house prices—over the past three years. We rank each city by how it has performed on the measures to create an overall score.
Miami claims top spot thanks to strong economic growth and an extremely perky property market: real house prices leapt by 39.5% from 2019 to 2022. Singapore is next, benefiting fromgrowth of 6.9%, and only a small rise in office vacancies. Dubai, meanwhile, has seen its population jump by 5.8%. It is also the only city in the index where office vacancies have dropped. At the other end of the table is San Francisco, where the population has fallen by 8.3%.
What explains this contrasting performance? Covid plays a part. Cities in bits of the world that did not go overboard with restrictions, such as Dubai and Miami, benefited—sometimes at the expense of those that did, like San Francisco.
Local leaders can make a difference. Miami has worked hard to attract financial business, with firms such as Blackstone and Citadel setting up shop recently. By contrast, San Francisco has lots going against it: a victim of the tech bust, it is expensive and sometimes dangerous, with high taxes and increasingly bad public services. Businesses are walking away, especially those based downtown, with Anthropologie, Office Depot and Whole Foods all closing stores in recent weeks.
One problem faced by all cities in the index, bar Dubai, is what to do with surplus office space. Vacancies represent a multibillion-dollar fiasco for owners of commercial property, and leave city budgets exposed. In February San Francisco proposed annual tax breaks of up to $1m for new office-based companies. Meanwhile, cities including New York, Paris and Singapore hope to convert offices to much-needed housing.
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