Over 40,000 people could die from coronavirus in South Africa by the end of the year. kgmadisa
This is according to predictions by a team of modelling experts who projected that Covid-19 could still wreak havoc in the country by November. The Covid-19 Modelling Consortium presented data that informs how the government deals with the virus and have predicted at least 1,4 million infections by November and over 40,000 deaths.
As it stands, 18,003 cases and 339 deaths have been confirmed in the country, but the experts predict a gradual spike in numbers towards the end of the year. Lead by Dr Sheetal Silal of the Modelling and Simulation hub, the team also predicted that a large number of coronavirus patients will need to be taken into intensive care unit across the country.
They predict that majority of the cases will be in Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, Western Cape and the Eastern Cape. Their breakdown, based on two scenarios – optimistic and pessimistic - suggests that there will be at least 330,000 and 500,000 cases in Gauteng; between 320,000 and 380,000 in KZN; 190,000 and 230,000 in Western Cape and between 190,000 and 230,000 in the Eastern Cape.
They stressed that this modelling was subject to change based on the interventions by the government. According to the experts, lockdown and social distance measures had worked in flattening the curve and delaying the peak period while the extension of the lockdown bought the country time to ramp up mass screening and testing measures.
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