With the 2026 men's NCAA tournament approaching, this article tracks teams on the bubble, analyzing their chances of securing at-large bids. Using metrics like NET rankings, it assesses teams' potential based on their performance and remaining schedule. The article highlights Wisconsin's improving prospects and Iowa's recent setbacks, examining their positions within their respective conferences.
The 2026 men's NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? They have roughly four weeks until Selection Sunday to strengthen their case.
Until then, we're here to track how each team on the "bubble" of the bracket is trending. We'll use a variety of metrics as guides, classifying teams based on how likely they are to make the field of 68 as one of the 37 at-large selections -- conditional onwinning their respective conference tournaments for one of the 31 automatic qualifying bids . To that end, we'll use Joe Lunardi'sand NCAA résumé metrics such as NET rankings that the selection committee will evaluate -- to judge a team's underlying potential. . Their remaining schedule gets a little bit better after one more Quadrant 1A opponent next week, and that -- plus their recent résumé-boosting Ws -- has boosted Wisconsin in the consensus at-large forecast from 79% to 96% in the past two weeks. Iowa was looking like a potential "lock" candidate after winning six in a row, but the Hawkeyes' at-large chances have fallen after back-to-back losses at Maryland and to Purdue. The Hawkeyes still own a résumé in the mid-30s nationally, and they are borderline top 25 in our average of predictive ratings, both of which bode well for their tournament hopes. But their schedule gets more difficult, jumping from 64th so far to ninth from here on nationally , according to the BPI. Darling of the forecast models -- which now average out to a conditional at-large probability in the mid-80% range despite the team's borderline top-40 résumé ranking -- Indiana bolstered its chances with a thrilling overtime win over Wisconsin on Saturday, then rolled all over Oregon on Monday. The latter was the Hoosiers' fifth victory in six games, a stretch that includes three wins over opponents in Quadrants 1 and 2. With only the eighth-hardest remaining schedule in the Big Ten and a top-30 ranking in the predictive metrics, the Hoosiers have a good path to the tourney in front of them. A recent stretch of five wins in six games had pushed the Bruins' consensus at-large chances near 80%, but that hot streak cooled off in Ann Arbor on Saturday, as Michigan rolled over UCLA by 30. The Bruins do have two Quadrant 1 wins, their résumé still ranks in the mid-40s nationally , and their predictive rating is better than their résumé gives them credit for. If the conference gets 10 bids, the Bruins are currently in line for the last one, but difficult matchups against Michigan State, Illinois and Nebraska remain. With a prime opportunity to raise its at-large chances even further against Virginia on Saturday in Nashville, Ohio State led by 11 early and was competitive throughout, but ultimately fell to the No. 15 Cavaliers. The Buckeyes still sit right on the bubble, ranking mid-40s in the national résumé rankings and 11th in what is looking like a 10-bid Big Ten. They are also 1-8 against Quadrant 1 opponents, making them less sure of a tournament-bound team as they seemed earlier in the season. But they're better than their current résumé indicates, ranking around 40th in the predictive ratings. The main issue is that they have been unable to build consistent momentum at any point this season, following six of their past seven wins with a defeat., USC's recent win streak helped pad its bubble case. But in a crucial visit to Ohio State on Wednesday, the Trojans were unable to hang on to a second-half lead, which sliced their at-large chances below 60%.If the season ended today, they would still likely secure one of the Big Ten's last entries with the eighth-best résumé ranking in what's tracking to be a 10-bid conference. Of course, their main problem remains future results. which is why the models are less bullish. USC is a high-40s team in the predictive ratings, with the nation's 23rd most difficult remaining schedule. The next three weeks will be a wild ride for Eric Musselman's team. Auburn's fortunes continued to slide with a double-digit loss to Arkansas in Fayetteville on Saturday. While the Tigers' four straight defeats have come against Quadrant 1 opponents -- Tennessee, Alabama, Vanderbilt and Arkansas -- they have dropped them to 5-7 in SEC play and complicated what once seemed like a strong tournament case. If we zoom out, the Tigers do have four Quadrant 1 wins against the nation's fifth-most difficult schedule per the BPI, and they remain mid-30s in the national résumé ranking average. On paper, those types of teams tend to receive an at-large call, though the BPI is projecting them to potentially not even reach 18 wins. They will be a fascinating litmus test for how much the committee values record versus schedule strength. After winning 16 of their first 19 games, the Dawgs have been on the decline, notching their fifth loss in six games after a second-half collapse at Oklahoma on Saturday. They entered the day in the high 30s of overall résumé rankings -- with a quartet of wins against the BPI top 50 -- and eighth in résumé average amid what is looking like a nine- or 10-bid SEC. But the recent jump in schedule difficulty has taken its toll, with plenty of tough matchups left, including Kentucky next. Add it up, and they are far from the comfortable tournament-bound team they once appeared to be. Texas A&M's consensus at-large chances reached well into the 80% range after opening SEC play on a 7-1 run, but the Aggies have dropped four straight -- including Saturday's loss at Vanderbilt -- and their odds have gone tumbling. They are still projected by the BPI to clear 20 wins by regular season's end, but they also entered Saturday ranked ninth in the résumé ranking average out of what could be only a nine-bid conference -- even if it's more likely 10-- and the gap between them and both Texas and Missouri has shrunk. In the highest-leverage bubble showdown on Saturday's slate, the Longhorns visited Missouri and beat the Tigers convincingly to continue a sharp upward trajectory in recent tournament projections. The Longhorns are still 10th in the conference in the résumé rankings , but their results are catching up with their predictive rating, which consistently has been in the top 40 by contrast. They still face a tough slate with four of their final six regular-season contests against Quadrant 1 opponents. Their tournament hopes might still rest on the SEC getting 10 bids, but the Longhorns are in vastly better shape now than at any point in the past six weeks. On the heels of three straight wins to revive what had been a flagging at-large probability, Missouri had a golden opportunity to add another résumé win over bubble nemesis Texas at home on Saturday. But the Tigers were outscored 52-37 after halftime, losing the critical matchup by 17 points. They still rank just 11th among SEC teams in the résumé average -- a tough spot to be in with the conference projected for 10 tournament entries by most accounts. They do have a pair of Quadrant 1A wins and five against the BPI top 50, but even if their résumé is on par with that of Texas, the Tigers are much lower in the predictive metrics -- and play an even tougher remaining schedule per the BPI. After satiating our criteria for a "lock," with a 98% consensus at-large chance after a run of eight wins in nine games , back-to-back losses to Louisville and Miami have NC State back in "should be in" territory. The Wolfpack still rank around the top-30 nationally in the predictive and résumé ratings, and entered the weekend ranked sixth on the résumé list in an ACC tracking for eight bids. But they also face a significantly tougher remaining schedule than the ACC's other bubble hopefuls. Just when the Mustangs seemingly bounced back from consecutive losses to Louisville and NC State with a pair of wins over Pittsburgh and Notre Dame, they faltered late as road favorites at Syracuse on Saturday, blowing a double-digit second-half lead to lose for the third time in five games. Still, they rank seventh in what should be an eight-bid ACC on résumé. And while they are seventh in the conference in the predictive ranking, they have the nation's 68th-hardest remaining schedule, which is good for managing a status quo that likely resides above the bubble if the bracket were set today. But their at-large chances are not as high as they were a few weeks ago. The Hurricanes' chances had dipped after a trio of recent losses, but three straight wins have coach Jai Lucas' team back on the rise, with back-to-back résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina and at NC State. The Hurricanes have a borderline top-40 résumé quality nationally , but their consensus model at-large chances are up roughly 20% over the past week, a positive trend at a critical point in the season. The BPI has them facing the 58th-hardest remaining schedule, with three more chances to score Quadrant 1 wins . Coming off a huge road win over a Quadrant 1A foe in Clemson on Wednesday, Virginia Tech ran out of gas against Florida State on Saturday, getting outscored 48-20 over the final 17:24 to lose by 23 at home. The Hokies still have ammunition in their battle to be possibly the last ACC team called to the brackets, including three Quadrant 1 wins and a résumé rating that ranks borderline top 40. But conditional at-large chances below 50% suggest they are in limbo without additional résumé boosters. Back-to-back losses to Clemson then in double overtime to Syracuse splashed cold water on Cal's hopes, but a convincing victory at Boston College got the Golden Bears moving back in the right direction. They still sit outside the top 50 on the résumé ranking, but they also have four Quadrant 1 wins and face the ACC's easiest remaining schedule. Either way, with a consensus at-large probability in the teens, the Bears certainly have "work to do." With so many of the Big 12's expected bids being effective locks -- the six teams listed above each have at least 99% conditional at-large chances in the model consensus -- the conference's bubble picture really comes down to who could be the seventh bid. The Knights remain in control of that slot despite three straight losses to Houston, Cincinnati and West Virginia, but their grip is loosening. As a result of this string of defeats, they are no longer tracking for more than 20 wins and have fallen outside the top 30 in the résumé average . Good news for the Knights is that they face the second-easiest remaining schedule in the conference. After a recent losing skid in Big 12 play, the Horned Frogs responded with a trio of big wins over Kansas State, Iowa State and Oklahoma State on the road in overtime. Their case is interesting: Although they sit with consensus at-large chance in the 30% range, they have five Quadrant 1 wins , and the chance to add another coming up against UCF, despite playing the Big 12's third-easiest remaining schedule . They are building a case to be the Big 12's eighth tournament team. West Virginia still faces an uphill battle to return to the tournament for the first time since 2023, but its win at UCF on Saturday certainly helps. The model consensus still sets the Mountaineers' chances at an at-large bid around 20%, and they are barely flirting with the top 60 in résumé rankings while only a little better in the predictive ranking. But they do have four wins against Quadrant 1 foes -- including one against Quadrant 1A Kansas last month -- and will have a chance to control their destiny by adding more in the coming weeks. Oklahoma State's season is heading in the wrong direction. The Cowboys have dropped three straight since upsetting BYU on Feb. 4 -- part of a stretch with seven losses in 10 games -- with the most recent coming at home to Big 12 bubble rival TCU on Saturday after the Frogs blew a late lead that allowed the Cowboys to force overtime. Oklahoma State is now outside the top 50 in the résumé ranking and just ninth in a conference tracking for seven to eight bids. The Cowboys' predictive ranking is also much worse than other bubble hopefuls,Just when the season seemed to be slipping away from Shaheen Holloway and his team with six losses in eight games, the Pirates outlasted Providence on Wednesday in a game with exactly one lead change -- midway through the second half. They still have a steep hill to climb, entering the day with only slightly above 10% at-large chances in the forecast composite, sitting outside the top 50 nationally in résumé average with only a single Quadrant 1 win . An at-large bid will be hard to argue for if the Big East receives only three bids, which is the current Bracketology expectation, though the Pirates have a few more high-profile chances left to make their case.Saint Mary's hasn't missed the NCAA tournament in five seasons, so it's tough to imagine that streak coming to an end, with the Gaels sitting 33rd in the résumé rankings. Yet they're here because they carry only a consensus 80% at-large probability -- not a "lock" -- likely driven by the perennial question of how many WCC teams the NCAA can accommodate for the Dance after Gonzaga. One possible trouble spot: While their résumé is better than that of Santa Clara's, the Gaels lost the first of the teams' two head-to-head matchups. They also don't have any Quadrant 1 wins -- and likely won't, unless they get revenge for a recent loss at Gonzaga when the teams meet again on Feb. 28 at Saint Mary's. But consecutive wins over San Diego, San Francisco and now Pepperdine have them back on the victory bus.The Santa Clara and Saint Mary's comparisons will be constant down the stretch as we debate whether the WCC could get three bids -- which has happened only once in the past 13 seasons, but legitimately could this year -- and how much the committee should value head-to-head wins versus overall résumé quality. The Broncos' chances continue to rise, however, with 74% consensus at-large odds and the 41st résumé ranking, which earns them "should be in" status for now. They cruised over Seattle on Wednesday night to claim their ninth consecutive win . And they will get additional cracks at both Saint Mary's and Gonzaga soon.The MAC hasn't received multiple bids since 1998-99 -- fittingly, the same season that Wally Szczerbiak led the RedHawks to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Washington and Utah in the first two rounds. Could history repeat itself? After Arizona lost earlier this month, Miami is the sole remaining unbeaten in Division I and ranks inside the top 40 on résumé as a result. The forecast models don't quite know how to handle the RedHawks, though the committee has never excluded an eligible team with fewer than four losses in a nonpandemic season. It is true that Miami is a borderline mid-80s team in the predictive ratings that has run up an undefeated record against the 336th-hardest schedule in the nation. But wins are wins, and Miami got that much closer to running the table on Friday, cruising at home against Ohio. Tuesday's game against UMass is the RedHawks' lowest-probability remaining hurdle, per Bart Torvik.Saturday was a good day for SDSU: The Aztecs beat Air Force, and conference bubble rival New Mexico fell to Boise State. That said, the Aztecs are still one of the bubbliest of bubble teams. They sit 46th nationally in résumé ranking, third in the conference standings and their consensus at-large chances are almost exactly 50-50. The Mountain West could feasibly send at least three teams to the tournament this year . With a fairly large gap in at-large odds over the next-best MW team , the Aztecs would figure to be in decent enough shape if they keep winning.Seeking a third straight NCAA tournament trip for the first time in more than a decade, the Lobos might no longer have the inside track to being the Mountain West's second-most-likely entrant after Saturday's heartbreaker against Boise State at The Pit dropped their consensus at-large odds below 50%, where they still reside after surviving Grand Canyon on Wednesday night. New Mexico is still slightly behind San Diego State in the résumé ranking though they do face the slightly easier schedule from here on out. The primary blemish for the Lobos is their head-to-head loss at the Aztecs on Jan. 17, which they won't have a chance to avenge until they play host on Feb. 28.VCU hasn't made back-to-back NCAA tournaments since the Will Wade era nearly a decade ago, and the forecast models remain less than bullish on that streak ending this season, in part because the Rams are 0-4 against Quadrant 1 opponents with only one remaining shot at changing that . However, they are right in the middle of bubble territory in overall résumé , and their remaining schedule is soft enough for more wins, so they can certainly strengthen their case. With a 78-67 victory at Richmond on Saturday, the Rams have now won nine in a row and 14 of 16.An average of rankings in the Basketball Power Index , KenPom ratings , Bart Torvik's "Barthagorean" ratings, TeamRankings' power ratings and Sports-Reference's SRS ratings.
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