A majority of stock market strategists polled by CNBC expect Democratic candidate Joe Biden to win the U.S. presidential race — but they're significantly split on what the election would mean for stocks.
Fourteen of 20 strategists surveyed by CNBC picked a Biden victory over Donald Trump. Half of the 20 strategists expect the S&P 500 to decline in the first month following election day — though not all those who foresee a stock market slide picked Biden. Five of the 20 expect a rally, four predicted a range-bound market, and one declined to answer.
CNBC offered the strategists anonymity in exchange for their views; 19 of the 20 respondents were based in the United States, with one based in the Asia-Pacific region.Some attributed a negative market reaction to Biden's proposed tax policies. Another said that the market reaction will depend on how the Senate races flesh out: "If Democrats win the Senate with Biden winning the , then a market rally will probably be harder to come by than if Biden wins and the Senate stays Republican, as he will less likely be able to pursue his tax agenda unchecked under this scenario."
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