New research suggests a fragmented British political landscape with Reform UK potentially becoming the largest party but needing a Conservative alliance to govern. Labour faces a significant collapse, while the Greens are projected to make substantial gains.
A significant new poll indicates that British politics is undergoing a dramatic fragmentation, potentially necessitating an alliance between Reform UK and the Conservative Party to form a governing coalition.
The research, conducted by Electoral Calculus for PLMR and based on Find Out Now surveys, paints a picture of unprecedented political instability should a general election be held immediately. The seat-by-seat projections reveal a landscape where no single party comes close to securing a majority in the House of Commons. Reform UK, under Nigel Farage, is currently projected to win the most seats – 188 – but the Conservatives, led by Kemi Badenoch, are close behind with 159.
This represents a catastrophic collapse for the Labour Party, which is forecast to be reduced to just 86 MPs, a stark decline from their current standing of over 400. The Green Party is predicted to make substantial gains, securing 71 constituencies, including a surprising number of traditionally Labour strongholds in London, even threatening Keir Starmer’s own seat in Holborn & St Pancras. The Liberal Democrats are expected to gain 61 seats, the Scottish National Party 44, and Plaid Cymru 17.
Even combining these figures with support from independent MPs and parties from Northern Ireland, forming a stable majority government appears highly improbable. A majority requires 326 seats out of 650, though governments have occasionally functioned with fewer. The prospect of a hung parliament with such a dispersed distribution of power is unprecedented in modern British political history.
The research employs the 'MRP' (Multilevel Regression and Poststratification) technique, which maps poll data onto the demographic characteristics of individual constituencies, while also factoring in the impact of tactical voting – a phenomenon expected to somewhat mitigate Reform UK’s overall performance as voters strategically support candidates most likely to defeat their opponents locally. The polling data, collected from 5,559 individuals between March 27th and April 7th, shows Reform UK currently enjoying the highest national support at 24%, although this is a decrease from their peak earlier in the year when projections indicated they could win up to 335 seats in January.
The Conservatives have seen a modest recovery to 21%, while Labour’s support has fallen to 17%. Kevin Craig, head of PLMR, emphasized that despite Reform UK’s current lead, the party lacks the overall trust of the electorate. He noted that Reform’s momentum appears to be slowing, suggesting a more competitive election environment and a likely hung parliament. He highlighted that the election is currently ‘all up for grabs’.
PLMR’s polling also revealed a concerning lack of public awareness regarding local council leadership, with fewer than half of voters able to correctly identify who is in charge. This poses a challenge for parties attempting to leverage their local record to gain support. Craig stressed the importance of the government rebuilding its connection with voters by demonstrating the tangible impact of national and local policies on their daily lives.
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, observed that while Reform UK remains the largest party, its popularity has decreased since its peak in 2024, with national support returning to levels seen at the beginning of the year. Farage now faces the challenge of retaining voters who are drifting back to the Conservatives and potentially attracting those considering alternative right-wing parties like Restore Britain.
Baxter warned that increased fragmentation on the right could create similar challenges for Reform UK as those Labour has faced due to vote splitting on the left
Reform UK Conservative Party Labour Party General Election Poll Hung Parliament Nigel Farage Kemi Badenoch Keir Starmer Electoral Calculus PLMR
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