Analysis: Iran challenged by Gaza ceasefire

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Analysis: Iran challenged by Gaza ceasefire
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As the Middle East broadly welcomes a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war, Iran finds itself at one of its weakest moments since its 1979 Islamic Revolution. Militant groups and allies in its “Axis of Resistance” are battered. Meanwhile, its top military leaders and scientists were killed in the 12-day war in June. As U.S.

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Hossein Salami, who were killed in Israeli strike in June, during a commemoration marking the first death anniversary of Hezbollah leaders Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine, who were killed in Israeli airstrikes in Beirut, in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025. An Iranian worshipper holds his country’s flag in front of a portrait of the late revolutionary founder Ayatollah Khomeini during an anti-Israeli rally after the Friday prayers at the Enqelab-e-Eslami street, in Tehran, Iran, Friday, Oct. 10, 2025. A man holds up a portrait of the late commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard aerospace division Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, who was killed in an Israeli strike in June, as a huge banner is seen at background showing the late commander of the Iran’s Revolutionary Guard expeditionary Quds Force, Gen. Qassem Soleimani, left, who was killed in a U.S. drone attack in 2020, and two late Hezbollah leaders Hassan Nasrallah, center, and Hashem Safieddine, who were killed in Israeli airstrikes in 2024, during an anti-Israeli rally after the Friday prayers at the Enqelab-e-Eslami square, in Tehran, Iran, Friday, Oct. 10, 2025. Iranian worshippers hold Iranian and Palestinian flags during an anti-Israeli rally after their Friday prayers at the Enqelab-e-Eslami street, in Tehran, Iran, Friday, Oct. 10, 2025. Iranian worshippers wave Palestinian and Iranian flags in front of a banner showing the late commander of the Iran’s Revolutionary Guard expeditionary Quds Force, Gen. Qassem Soleimani, left, and two late Hezbollah leaders Hassan Nasrallah, center, and Hashem Safieddine, during an anti-Israeli rally after the Friday prayers at the Enqelab-e-Eslami square, in Tehran, Iran, Friday, Oct. 10, 2025. Iranian worshippers wave Palestinian and Iranian flags in front of a banner showing the late commander of the Iran’s Revolutionary Guard expeditionary Quds Force, Gen. Qassem Soleimani, left, and two late Hezbollah leaders Hassan Nasrallah, center, and Hashem Safieddine, during an anti-Israeli rally after the Friday prayers at the Enqelab-e-Eslami square, in Tehran, Iran, Friday, Oct. 10, 2025. Women talk in front of the banners showing portraits of the late chief of the general staff of Iran’s armed forces, Gen. Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, right, and the late commander of Revolutionary Guard Gen. Hossein Salami, who were killed in Israeli strike in June, during a commemoration marking the first death anniversary of Hezbollah leaders Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine, who were killed in Israeli airstrikes in Beirut, in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025. Women talk in front of the banners showing portraits of the late chief of the general staff of Iran’s armed forces, Gen. Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, right, and the late commander of Revolutionary Guard Gen. Hossein Salami, who were killed in Israeli strike in June, during a commemoration marking the first death anniversary of Hezbollah leaders Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine, who were killed in Israeli airstrikes in Beirut, in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025. An Iranian worshipper holds his country’s flag in front of a portrait of the late revolutionary founder Ayatollah Khomeini during an anti-Israeli rally after the Friday prayers at the Enqelab-e-Eslami street, in Tehran, Iran, Friday, Oct. 10, 2025. An Iranian worshipper holds his country’s flag in front of a portrait of the late revolutionary founder Ayatollah Khomeini during an anti-Israeli rally after the Friday prayers at the Enqelab-e-Eslami street, in Tehran, Iran, Friday, Oct. 10, 2025. A man holds up a portrait of the late commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard aerospace division Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, who was killed in an Israeli strike in June, as a huge banner is seen at background showing the late commander of the Iran’s Revolutionary Guard expeditionary Quds Force, Gen. Qassem Soleimani, left, who was killed in a U.S. drone attack in 2020, and two late Hezbollah leaders Hassan Nasrallah, center, and Hashem Safieddine, who were killed in Israeli airstrikes in 2024, during an anti-Israeli rally after the Friday prayers at the Enqelab-e-Eslami square, in Tehran, Iran, Friday, Oct. 10, 2025. A man holds up a portrait of the late commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard aerospace division Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, who was killed in an Israeli strike in June, as a huge banner is seen at background showing the late commander of the Iran’s Revolutionary Guard expeditionary Quds Force, Gen. Qassem Soleimani, left, who was killed in a U.S. drone attack in 2020, and two late Hezbollah leaders Hassan Nasrallah, center, and Hashem Safieddine, who were killed in Israeli airstrikes in 2024, during an anti-Israeli rally after the Friday prayers at the Enqelab-e-Eslami square, in Tehran, Iran, Friday, Oct. 10, 2025. Iranian worshippers hold Iranian and Palestinian flags during an anti-Israeli rally after their Friday prayers at the Enqelab-e-Eslami street, in Tehran, Iran, Friday, Oct. 10, 2025. Iranian worshippers hold Iranian and Palestinian flags during an anti-Israeli rally after their Friday prayers at the Enqelab-e-Eslami street, in Tehran, Iran, Friday, Oct. 10, 2025. “Axis of Resistance” over several decades, supporting militant groups and nations allied with it against Israel and the United States. But as Israel bombed the Gaza Strip, it also turned its crosshairs toward top leaders abroad in groups like Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and even the top echelon within Iran’s military and its nuclear program — killing many and disrupting their ability to fight back.prepares for a Middle East trip that likely will see him praised by Israel and Arab nations, Iran won’t be at the table as it still How Tehran’s theocracy responds in the weeks and months ahead, whether that means lashing out or trying to rebuild its hobbled economy at home, will be crucial. “Undoubtedly this is a not a proud moment for Iran,” said Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group. “Its alliance system in the region is in region is in ruins but it doesn’t mean that the ‘Axis of Resistance’ is no more.”Iranian state media has sought to describe the Gaza ceasefire as a victory for Hamas, despite the war destroying the Gaza Strip and killing over 67,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza Health Ministry. Iran’s Foreign Ministry welcomed “any decision ... that guarantees halting the genocide of Palestinians.” Perhaps more tellingly, an adviser to Iran’s 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei suggested the ceasefire would only lead to conflict elsewhere in the region. “The start of the ceasefire in Gaza may be the behind-the-scenes end of the ceasefire somewhere else!” Ali Akbar Velayati wrote on X, referencing Hezbollah, Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels and Iraq.. Khamenei has not resumed his usual routine of weekly speeches to audiences. Meanwhile, Iran without explanation avoided holding a major military commemoration marking the end of the Iran-Iraq war in September, which typically sees top officials watch drones and missile launchers parade past them. “Iran has always focused on its interests, we do not have resources anymore, our economy has weakened,” said Tehran-based analyst Saeed Leilaz. “Our support to Hamas were a reaction to U.S. to divert conflicts from our borders.”“Iran is like a bankrupt gambler after winning some small money in the first rounds,” said Amir Kazemi, a university student in Tehran. “When Hamas attacked Israel, Iran was happy about it. But now, after the ceasefire, Iran finds nothing in its pocket.”, its theocratic government sought to export its Shiite revolutionary ideology more widely in the Middle East. That morphed following its devastating 1980s war with Iraq into more of an effort to provide a level of deterrence as Arab nations around it purchased sophisticated American bombs, warplanes and tanks Tehran couldn’t access due to sanctions.The peak of the “Axis of Resistance” came in the chaotic years after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and Yemen’s subsequent collapse into a civil war. Then, it could count on Hezbollah, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, the Houthis, Iraqi militant groups and even Hamas — a Sunni militant group.Israeli strikes killed Hezbollah and Hamas’ top leaders, while Iraqi militant groups faded into the background. The Houthis, while still capable of launching attacks on Israel and, find themselves now targeted by increasingly precise Israeli strikes. And the 12-day war in June left Iran likely no longer enriching uranium for its nuclear program, whichIran, meanwhile, has yet to receive any major support from either China or Russia, despite providing Beijing with likely discounted oil and Moscow with the drones it uses in its war on Ukraine. Tehran has also shied away from confronting “The ceasefire is reflective of Tehran’s collapsing regional clout following the unraveling of its long-powerful ‘Axis of Resistance’ since 2024,” said Ali Fathollah-Nejad, the director of the Berlin-based Center for Middle East and Global Order. “The ceasefire will free Israeli military capacities that would now be used against Iranian interests — whether in Lebanon against Hezbollah or directly against Iran.” For his part, Trump seized on Iran accepting the ceasefire as “terrific” news. However, there’s been no move toward renewed public negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear program. “Time is not on Iran’s side but their problem is no one is really giving them an exit ramp,” Vaez said. But whether Tehran would take the ramp also remains in question as its leaders still debate what turn to now take., the news director for the Gulf and Iran for The Associated Press, has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations across the Mideast and the wider world since joining the AP in 2006.Gambrell is the news director for the Gulf and Iran for The Associated Press. He has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations across the world since joining the AP in 2006.The superintendent arrested by ICE had a consulting gig. His districts repeatedly hired the firm

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War And Unrest Donald Trump General News 2024-2025 Mideast Wars Ali Akbar Velayati Bashar Assad Tehran Middle East International Agreements Iran Government Hamas International News Ali Fathollah-Nejad Israel Government Saeed Leilaz Amir Kazemi World News Ali Vaez Hezbollah World News

 

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