Which draft picks are set up to win Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year? Let's stack the top names to watch on each side of the ball.
will be standing on the stage at the NFL Honors receiving the award for Rookie of the Year. In fact, two will -- offense and defense.
) on my lists. I'm pretty happy with those outcomes for early May guesstimates, as we don't even have training camp depth charts or preseason injury news yet. Both awards follow fairly consistent bumper rails for voters, and as such, we can define favorites and sleepers from long distance. Here are my way-too-early rankings for Rookies of the Year candidates, split by offense and defense.
I'll go through the possibilities and then give my final list.
' first-round wideout McMillan produced 1,014 yards and seven touchdowns in what was generally a down year for OROY options.finished behind McMillan in voting despite only nine starts, and had he played 17 games, the conversation would have been more interesting. As a general rule, quarterbacks who start the majority of the season win the award over spectacular seasons from non-quarterbacks.
In 2023,had excellent rookie seasons, but Nacua's campaign was legitimately record-setting, as his 105 receptions and 1,486 yards became new marks for rookie receivers. The yardage record had stood for for the title. Identifying early-season starters at quarterback is the quickest path to finding Offensive Rookie of the Year favorites.this offseason. But Cousins' tune at his introductory news conference was quite soft: "I don't want to start unless I'm the best option.
I told Klint that the best player should play.
" I'm willing to bank on Mendoza's long runway of preparation for Kubiak's offense -- he has known he was going to be a Raider since January -- giving him an early leg up relative to most rookies.is as good of a tight end as a young passer can ask for, and there are worse receiving rooms than the Raiders' offering of.in the backfield, but remember, it's all about starts and decent play for ROTY quarterbacks. Run heaviness won't hurt too much.
Critically, a quarterback also doesn't need to win games to garner OROY love. Murray won the award on a 5-10-1 Cardinals squad, while 2020to a 7-9 record. Any semi-respectable record will let Mendoza qualify -- and I think the Raiders' roster is plenty capable of such a season.
Should Mendoza's rookie year prove disqualifying for any of a number of reasons -- injury, team collapse, a bunch of Cousins starts, Jeanty rushing for 2,000 yards, etc. -- Tate and Love become more interesting.in 2021), but he's only the sixth wideout to win the award this century. Receivers have recently leapfrogged running backs as the non-quarterback contenders in Rookie of the Year voting -- no back has won Rookie of the Year since Can Tate have the season McMillan just had?
I'm dubious. Tate was not the primary receiver at Ohio State and will now draw WR1 attention in the NFL. I had a lower grade on Tate coming out than I had on McMillan last year, and I have more esteem forcalling plays in Carolina than I do for Brian Daboll in Tennessee. Plus, Daboll will be tempted to funnel targets to former Giant, a notorious high-volume slot receiver.
The road for Tate to climb is tougher than McMillan's was a year ago. On the other hand, the fourth pick is the fourth pick. The Titans are telling us that they want Tate to produce heavily. I'm just not sure I buy the talent level relative to past winners such as Wilson and Chase.
Love seems like an obvious favorite for Rookie of the Year, and I get it from a talent perspective. He is the earliest drafted running back since Barkley, who is the most recent running back winner. Barkley led the league in yards from scrimmage as a rookie, and while Love is unlikely to beBut we've seen more receivers than running backs win the award lately because of the changing dynamic at the position.
The league doesn't hammer one back with carries the way it once did. Barkley had 352 touches in that 2018 season, working out to 22.0 per game. In the seven seasons since, only 10 backs have exceeded that number , and they have earned that sort of usage. The only rookie to exceed 2018 Barkley was 2021.
Kamara reminds us that running back production is much more situational than quarterback and receiver production; it took a special playcaller and a late-career Drew Brees sprinting to the checkdown to open the door for Kamara. A bet on Love for Rookie of the Year is a bet that he's closer to Barkley than he is to Jeanty .camp battle and will run behind an offensive line that was 29th in adjusted line yards last season . I will be pleased to look extremely stupid in the event that Sadiq wins the award, as I love the player. But it will be legitimately unprecedented..
Of course, Olave has never played a full 17-game season or played more than eight games in a season. And Tyson does have the talent to go for a 1,000-yard season so long asstays healthy, which is not a guarantee. The Saints were the fastest-paced NFL offense by a serious margin last season, so Tyson should see more opportunities for compiling stats.
I'm intrigued but not ready to commit.is traded), but it's tough to feel great about his potential for drawing volume on a run-heavy team such as the Eagles. However, any injury to Smith will immediately put Lemon in a position for eight-plus targets per game, as there are no incumbent veterans , and Eddie Lacy .
There isn't really an easy unifying thread between these late drafted winners save for poor performances from the first-rounders.
In this weak 2026 draft class, the window for a middle-round player to emerge is cracked slightly wider. Of course, the RB3 came off the board at No. 91 -- the latest RB3 in the common draft era -- so that blade cuts both ways.
A few players selected outside of Round 1 who I believe have the best shot to win Rookie of the Year: As much as Concepcion has a good chance to become the WR1 in Cleveland, so does Boston, who was drafted 15 picks later. He has a bigger body with a larger catch radius, and that might be better suited to produce with the Browns' quarterbacks of questionable accuracy.
I was not a Beck believer predraft, but there is a path for him to be the Week 1 starter if he can beat out two career backups in Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew II. If he does, he has a solid group of pass catchers and a head coach stemming off the Sean McVay/Kyle Shanahan tree in Mike LaFleur.
Production -- even if it's composed entirely of empty calories accumulated in trailing scripts -- will not surprise me for a 23-year-old with good point guard characteristics. A schematic overhaul is underway in Washington, where the old Kliff Kingsbury college offense has been shed for a Ben Johnson-inspired system that gets under center and hunts explosive plays off play-action.
For that offense, which desperately needs a pass catcher oppositeto his game since he's as tough as nails, willing to win downfield throws through contact and slippery in his routes. I would not be surprised if he starts getting more targets than McLaurin by season's end. In order for a middle-round quarterback to win Rookie of the Year, he must be thrust into a surprising season of full starts .
Given that Pittsburgh's QB1 is expected to be 42-year-old, who has a 2023Achilles tear on his résumé -- he still has not committed to return for 2026 and could end up elsewhere despite the Steelers using the UFA tender on him this week -- Allar could have an avenue. However, Allar must beIf a player is not included, it means they have zero chance of winning the award. It simply will not happen. Do not screenshot this.
Defensive Rookie of the Year is conveniently organized for prognosticators. Since 2000, 22 of the 26 winners have been first-round picks. The four players who didn't go in the first round were linebackers taken before No. 40, including last year's winner Carson Schwesinger. Sadly, there were no linebackers taken in the second round before No. 40 this year. We can stretch our constraints slightly to fit three, maybe four,Otherwise, we're constrained to the first round. Thirteen defensive players were selected Thursday: two defensive tackles, five edge rushers, two linebackers bucked the trend with an eight-interception season and was voted to an All-Pro team.
was the other, but he was drafted in a historic class in which only two defenders went in the first 16 picks. While I won't exclude the back half of Thursday's first round altogether as favorites, I will mainly focus on five top-16 selections, excluding Downs. The highest drafted edge rusher with the highest pass-rushing ceiling, Bailey is an easy candidate for the top of the list.
His running mates on the edge are dangerous enough that Bailey won't see disproportionate double-team rates. As a splashy pass rusher with average run defense, he figures to save his legs for premier rush downs, which will inflate stats like sack and pressure rates.
As long as the Jets aren'tIt's harder for an off-ball linebacker to win this award than you might expect -- only three have since 2009, when Brian Cushing finished a four-year run of stack linebackers bringing home the hardware. We simply value pass rushing far more than tackle collection in the modern NFL ... but that might be good news for Reese, who figures to grab more pass rush reps than the average off-ball linebacker.
The more we learn about the Giants' plan for him, the easier he'll be to predict. Right now, he's mostly theory. The Chiefs traded up in the first round to secure Delane, and he will have an unimpeded path to CB1 reps after they tradedwalk in free agency. Corners need production on the ball to win this award, and Delane will get tested as a rookie covering star receivers.
He was quite productive in college -- 11 passes defensed in 11 games during his final season. Cornerbacks don't win the award often, but all three winners this century were after 2014. It's hard to put Delane clearly above the edge rushers, but when corners win Rookie of the Year, they look like this.was a tackle vacuum for the Commanders, but can Styles do the same as he steps into his shoes?
It's a towering task, but Styles also has the DB background and unique frame to make far more plays in the passing game than the average starting linebacker. Riddling out whether Styles can get 100% of the snaps in Week 1, withalso on the depth chart, is the key to defining just how strong of a candidate he is. But the blend of tackle production and pass coverage might be too much for voters to ignore.
Bain barely slips in below the threshold, as the Bucs snagged him at No. 15. A pro-ready run defender who has little competition on the depth chart, Bain is exactly the sort of player I look for as a Rookie of the Year candidate ... save for one key issue. He isn't a high sack player.
His short arms and favored power rush create a lot of disruption, but unless he lucks into some cleanup work, it's hard to imagine Bain -- who maxed out at 9.5 sacks in 16 games last season -- suddenly becoming a double-digit sack artist in the league. Still, he might have enough TFLs and advanced stats to draw legit candidacy.
No defensive tackle has won Rookie of the Year since Aaron Donald in 2014, and the only other tackle to do it this century wasthat sort of talent and an enticing bet accordingly. But he has a foot injury that's impossible to overlook. He also plays in a Brian Flores defense that doesn't allow defensive tackles to play the sort of unhinged, penetration-oriented style that leads to sacks.
Sure, the Vikings spent an early pick on Banks -- but as head coach of the Dolphins in 2019, Flores used the No. 13 pick on. Perhaps that means he brings fresh legs onto the field on pass-rush downs and accumulates sacks while that spectacular Chargers secondary forces quarterbacks to hold the ball.
However, the more likely scenario is that the rotation limits too many of his opportunities. I'm not buying it.also sit on the depth chart. But with new defensive coordinator Christian Parker, tons of snaps are up for grabs. Lawrence has elite explosive measurables and a better path to every down opportunities than late drafted pass rushers.
He's the sleeper to circle. It would be so cool if, mired in what's sure to be a terrible Dolphins season, Johnson snagged seven picks and won Defensive Rookie of the Year. It's not impossible --won it in 2022 on a 7-10 Jets squad. And Jeff Hafley's Packers were eighth in turnovers per defensive drive over his two years in Green Bay.
I'm not saying it's likely, but interceptions have a lot of randomness to them, and there's nodraws all the double teams, Steve Spagnuolo continues to blitz at a high rate and Woods collects a ton of behind-the-line production as a cleanup man. It's not at all likely, but for most defensive tackles drafted at No. 29, I would tell you there's no shot. Woods is a great penetrator, and the environment is right in Kansas City.
As I said above, the only players who are not first-rounders to win Defensive Rookie of the Year this century were linebackers selected at the top of Round 2. Those were Schwesinger ,No linebackers left the board in the 30s this year, but five were picked in Round 2. For the sake of argument, I'll include them here in order of where they were picked: Rodriguez is perhaps the most Schwesinger-esque of the five Round 2 options.
Undersized but with magnets to the ball, Rodriguez will be a fun candidate in a different defense. But there simply won't be enough production to go around alongside All-Pro linebacker. But Anzalone is a free agent addition, and Trotter's unique skill in college was his burst and unreal football instincts to create tackles at or near the line of scrimmage.
He's in the race for the award, especially if he shows during camp that he can play faster than the aging Anzalone.at inside linebacker. He will undoubtedly have flashy plays in subpackages, but he simply will not see enough snaps -- barring injury -- to contend for this award. Here's the player who could really win it.
Allen is the unquestioned LB1 in Indianapolis, was a prolific tackler at Georgia and was drafted by the same GM who snagged 2018 Defensive Rookie of the Year winner Shaq Leonard -- a linebacker in Round 2. Coordinator Lou Anarumo's defense was great for, and Allen has a strong football IQ to succeed within it. Great fit, great opportunity. We're well into uncharted territory now.
It's tempting to say Hill -- a high-ceiling but still raw prospect -- is certain to start over incumbents. I would call it likely but not guaranteed, and as such, we've stretched too thin my tolerance for eliminating historical precedent. Hill simply isn't guaranteed the snaps necessary to be a strong preseason candidate for Rookie of the Year. Check back in training camp. SoCal starts May with warmer temps, but cooler conditions ahead
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