Are the Lakers toast? Is the Spurs' 3-point prowess real? We canvass the league on six storylines that could define the postseason.
The final few weeks of the regular season feature the best teams preparing for the playoffs, the worst teams tanking, banged-up star players being shut down and plenty of outlier situations unfolding. The bottom line? Performances and storylines at this point in the season aren't always predictive of the league, its teams and its players' future.
"I'd love to be able to see LeBron have a vintage series," a second West executive said. "But I'm afraid the teams that win the play-in might give OKC and San Antonio a better series than the Lakers can give Houston without AR and Luka."But that focus has masked one of the NBA's top player development machines, one that has continuously turned late first-round picks, second-round picks and undrafted players into mainstays. This season, after the franchise lost Porzingis, Horford and Holiday in the offseason, Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla has put role players such as "Everyone's weaknesses are minimized," an Eastern scout said, "and they maximize their guys' strengths. And, by doing that, they create so many 3s that it's tough to match up with them."Mazzulla really did a masterful job this season of developing his bench and setting and defining roles that allowed Tatum to rejoin seamlessly. It also helps thatBut rivals believe Boston's young players will be tested. "There's going to be a bad quarter or two, and probably not until the second round, where their young guys are going to show their age," an East executive said. "They probably have enough to bail them out once or twice, but how they respond to adversity will teach us a lot about how good this roster really is.""Can you survive with Queta and Garza and Vuc ?" a West assistant coach said. "I think they're the team to beat because I've seen them do it."The Cavaliers had one of their best halves in the past few weeks Wednesday when they beat the Hawks, who entered the night winning 18 of their past 21 games. They held Atlanta to 41% shooting in the second half, and But that game stuck out because the Cavs allowed 67 points in the first half, part of a regression over the past two-plus months that has dropped their defensive efficiency to 17th since the All-Star break. Earlier this week, they gave up an NBA-record 29 3-pointers to the, part of a 3-point defense that has been victimized this season. Cleveland is allowing 42% shooting on corner 3s since the break, 20th in the league alongside many of the tanking teams. The Cavs are 19-6 when Harden plays, but their defensive struggles and shifting lineups have made it hard to have enormous confidence in them. "Harden is a master of offense, and he and Mitchell are an absolute load to handle every night," an East scout said. "But Harden has been in better shape and the referees don't give him as many calls as they used to for some reason. And it shows up on defense; he and Mitchell sometimes get torched out there."On one hand, Cleveland can hope that getting back Allen, who has been dealing with knee issues for the past few weeks, will help remedy its struggling defense."Allen has missed a bunch of time, and he's a big part of who they are," a scout who saw the Cavaliers recently said. "You'll get a bump because it's the playoffs, and everyone is locked in, but you still have to manage Donovan and James. ...Harden is averaging 5.8 free throws per game in Cleveland, down from 8.5 in the 44 games he played for the Clippers this season. The Cavs are fourth in the league in offensive efficiency since trading for him. "I understand the reasons they made the Harden trade, and I think it did put them in a better spot," an East executive said. "But they are going to have times where they're going to be better off with Merrill out there on defense more than Harden. I think they'll go as far as Donovan's scoring can take them, and that's something we've seen before with his teams." Mitchell has averaged 28 points over 63 playoff games, with seven 40-point playoff games and three 50-point playoff games. He has never reached a conference finals., has driven massive success during Detroit's run to the East's top seed. But can the first-time All-Star center score enough to be the second option on a team that hasn't had any playoff success yet? "I like Duren," a West executive said. "I'm terrified to give him his max , but the dude is a beast. He grabs every rebound, can guard and his scoring has exceeded everything I would have expected coming into the season."When Cunningham was sidelined with a collapsed lung, the playmaking-challenged Pistons started leaning on Duren to create offense for them. Coach JB Bickerstaff designed plays on which Duren was the trigger man with the ball at the top of the key, something few knew he had in his game. His usage rate and assists spiked, and the Pistons' offense really benefited. In the 12 games before Cunningham got hurt, Duren had a total of 14 assists. In a nine-game stretch with Cunningham out, Duren averaged four per game. It's something new the Pistons could have in the game plan during the playoffs.That said, teams have typically needed a second high-level ball handler to get to the end in the postseason, likefor Oklahoma City last year. That option doesn't exist right now for Detroit, meaning it will have to be a committee approach. "When the first guy has so much usage, is that easier?" the West executive asked. "That helps it some. But I don't know if it can be only him."'s rim attacking, the common counter was to pack the paint to force 3-pointers. It was a sound strategy -- the Spurs aren't loaded with long-range shooters, and Wembanyama can be tempted into lower-percentage shots. Over the season's first 50 games, the Spurs were 17th in 3-pointers per game and 22nd in percentage. "I keep seeing you media guys say why the Spurs aren't going to win the title," one East vice president said. "You'd be better off listing reasons why they are." OK, here is a big one: Since the All-Star break, the Spurs have surged big-time from deep. They are shooting better than 38%, third in the league in that span, and are up to 14.9 makes a game, putting them just outside the top five.It's one thing to make those shots in February and March. It's another to make them in late April, May and June -- particularly when this roster is largely devoid of playoff experience. It's been 30 years since a team in this type of position reached the NBA Finals without making a run the year before: the 1995, led by Shaquille O'Neal and Anfernee Hardaway. There are plenty of similarities between these two teams, and perhaps things will play out like they did that year for the Magic and their young stars."Young guys going through the playoffs for the first time is a totally different animal," a West assistant coach said. "It will be interesting to see how those guys handle it.The immediate answer from league insiders I spoke to was "no." Obviously, it's been a brutal season for Golden State from an injury perspective, including losing bothdrama over the first half of the season and Kristaps Porzingis and Curry missing large chunks of the second half. "I'm not sure they even win the 9-10 game, let alone both," a West scout said. "It's one thing when Steph gets it going at home and he's got that crowd roaring behind him. That's a real thing. "It's different when they're on the road and he's doing it somewhere else. That same factor just isn't there."So much of the attention on the Warriors is naturally on Curry, a game changer in every way. But the Warriors' defense has really struggled coming down the stretch as Steve Kerr has managed injuries. "Our analytics people will tell me that 3-point shooting often comes down to luck, and it's just a matter of the quality of the shot," a West scout said. "Well, the Warriors sure as hell must be having some terrible luck, because the last few times I've watched them they're getting killed on corner 3s." The numbers, horrifyingly for Golden State, back that up. Since the All-Star break, the Warriors are giving up a league-worst 46% shooting percentage on corner 3-pointers and a jaw-dropping 57% on right corner 3s. But it's also bad inside, as opponents are shooting 71% in the restricted area over the past two months, fifth worst in the league.Pacoima businesses raise concerns over RV encampments
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