The development of AI raises profound questions. Perhaps foremost among them is a straightforward one. What does this mean for the economy? Many have grand expectations, yet financial markets point to rather more modest outcomes
Yeah, but what about me?might not create a new class of robber barons, to many people that will be cold comfort. They are more concerned with their own economic prospects—in particular, whether their job will disappear. Terrifying predictions abound. Tyna Eloundou of Openworkforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction ofs”. Edward Felten of Princeton University, and colleagues, conduct a similar exercise.
What actually happened took people by surprise. In the past decade the average rich-world unemployment rate has roughly halved . The share of working-age people in employment is at an all-time high. Countries with the highest rates of automation and robotics, such as Japan, Singapore and South Korea, have the least unemployment.
The problem with this scenario is that history suggests job destruction happens far more slowly. The automated telephone switching system—a replacement for human operators—was invented in 1892. It took until 1921 for the Bell System to install their first fully automated office. Even after this milestone, the number of American manual telephone operators continued to grow, peaking in the mid-20th century at around 350,000.
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