Michael Barone is the senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner, a resident fellow emeritus at the American Enterprise Institute, and the longtime co-author of The Almanac of American Politics.
What’s with young voters? It’s a question prompted by two surprising and perhaps contradictory developments that are out of line with conventional wisdom and prevailing expectations among political observers.
Analyst Nate Cohn points out that nonwhite respondents under 45 said they favored Biden over Trump, 68% to 29%, in 2020, but they now say they would favor him by 49% to 42%. The leftward lurch among college-indoctrinated young people is something I have picked up in city elections. Just as we’ve seen since the 1970s a graduate student proletariat dominant in university towns from Cambridge, Massachusetts, to Berkeley, California, in the last decade, we’ve seen an emerging barista Left in large central cities.
The race was similarly tight but the result different in Chicago this year. In the March primary, centrist former schools chief Paul Vallas carried the white ethnic bungalow wards and affluent Lakefront precincts, while incumbent Lori Lightfoot carried the black South and West sides. Outside university towns and the hip neighborhoods of central cities, barista leftists are relatively scarce and dispersed widely over culturally less congenial landscapes. Meanwhile young people with little or no exposure to campus indoctrination and not much interest in or knowledge of political issues are scattered around the country, with whites predominant outside major metropolitan areas and blacks and Hispanics in modest-income exurbs and suburbs.
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