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Market mood further darkened yesterday following another round of weak Treasury sales in the US.
Treasuries and equities sold off, the US dollar gained across the board. Things could get better or worse in the coming hours. All eyes are on the US GDP update, due today, and the Fed’s favourite gauge of inflation – the core PCE number – due tomorrow. Elsewhere, released yesterday, the Australian inflation unexpectedly rose in April and the German inflation came in worse than expected.
Unless we see a big surprise – which I don’t think will happen, the European Central Bank will probably announce a 25bp rate cut next Thursday. And if the Fed cut expectations vanish faster than the ECB cut expectations, the EURUSD should remain under pressure for further downside correction. Happily, for everyone who doesn’t have a positive exposure to energy and energy stocks, oil prices don’t gather enough momentum above key resistance levels to further fuel the inflation worries.
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