But are we now better equipped to predict its next large eruption?
New research conducted by an international team of researchers suggests that there's more magma under Yellowstone than was previously thought.
The discovery adds critical data to current models, which could lead to improved predictions for the next large eruption.The goal of the study, led by geologist Ross Maguire of the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, was to estimate how much magma was present in Yellowstone'sThey were specifically looking for melt - which is frequently used to predict eruptions.
While it's usually challenging to see deep underground, the researchers used a recently developed tomographic imaging method to examine seismic wave recordings between 2000 and 2018. They then applied a technique called full waveform inversion to better understand the bouncing and reflecting vibrations.
They discovered that the magma reservoir beneath Yellowstone has a partial melt fraction of between 16 and 20 percent, compared with earlier models indicating 10 percent or less. This was determined by looking at how the speed of the detected waves fluctuated at different depths.According to earlier estimates, a melt volume of between 35 and 50 percent is needed to start an eruption. Still, many other variables at work make it difficult to forecast when these events will occur.
In the past 2.1 million years, Yellowstone has seen three catastrophic eruptions. While it is uncertain when the next one will occur, having a better understanding of the caldera's geology will always be beneficial.
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