Yankees vs. Orioles prediction: Aaron Judge smashes Albert Suarez

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Yankees vs. Orioles prediction: Aaron Judge smashes Albert Suarez
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On Tuesday night, the Yankees will take on Orioles starter Robert Suarez, who’s sparkling 1.61 ERA is a bit misleading.

On Tuesday night, the Yankees will take on Orioles starter Albert Suarez, who’s sparkling 1.61 ERA is a bit misleading.

Suarez sports a 3.43 expected ERA and a 4.25 expected FIP, suggesting that he’s been incredibly lucky to keep so many teams from scoring in 44 ⅔ innings swapping between the bullpen and starter role this season. It’s not like Suarez is forcing batters to pound the ball into the ground – his 38 percent fly ball percentage allowed is actually well above average.

Judge has never faced Suarez, but he’s hit much better against right-handers than left-handers this season, and has also thrived at Yankee Stadium compared to the road so far in 2024. Suarez also throws a four-seam fastball or cutter more than three-quarters of the time – two pitchers Judge has eaten up throughout his career.

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