The large migration from cities to the countryside when the Chinese New Year holiday begins on January 21 could spread Covid-19 to rural areas and hold back economic activity in the first quarter, analysts warn
Uncertainty about the real extent of the latest Covid-19 wave in China, as well as how quickly the Chinese economy will get going this year, is causing great anxiety in the global economy.
Annabel Bishop, an economist at Investec, says in a note that the impact of the latest Covid-19 wave in China and strict restrictions that were still in place in the fourth quarter of last year, will continue to be felt in the supply chain for some time. Herald van der Linde, HSBC’s head in the Asia-Pacific region, says the Chinese economy will reopen in fits and starts amid rising Covid-19 cases that are overwhelming the country’s health system.
After an expected sluggish first quarter, growth in China could pick up to 4.8% for the year, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. Last Thursday, five new Covid-related deaths were reported in China, bringing the death toll to just over 5 200 – one of the lowest in the world.Airfinity, a British firm specialising in health data, estimates that around 9 000 people are dying each day in China due to Covid-19.By Friday, more countries had introduced requirements, such as Covid-19 tests, for Chinese visitors.
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