The 2026 World Cup enters its group stage with three crucial games to watch and wager on. The analyst breaks down betting strategies for Turkey versus Australia, highlights Switzerland's odds against Qatar, questions Morocco's hype after its 2022 semifinal run, backs Brazil as a slight undervalued favorite on the moneyline, and critiques the pricing of Scotland versus Haiti, noting Haiti's recent strong performances.
The 2026 World Cup is officially underway, and after two days with just a pair of matches, it's time to really sink our teeth into this tournament.
From now until the end of the Group Stage, June 27, we have at least three matches to watch and bet on. While Turkiye vs. Australia is technically a Sunday game if you live in the Eastern Time Zone, I'm going to treat it as a Saturday match.
Therefore, I have a bet for four matches locked in this morning. Let's dive into them. It's always tough to figure out how to bet on a lopsided match, but one of my favorite ways to do so is by taking the better team to win both halves. Credit to Qatar for qualifying for this year's World Cup, but this is still a team that's 2-4-7 in its last 13 matches dating back to June of last year.
Not only that, but the level of competition they've had to face doesn't exactly jump off the page. Switzerland is an experienced team, and while the Swiss generally rely on strong defensive play, I don't expect them to park the bus after they take the lead. You never know how much goal differential will matter at this stage of the tournament, so beating up on the worst team in the group could be important.
I'm not buying into the Morocco hype. I think this team is being overrated after its semifinal appearance at the 2022 World Cup. Sure, Morocco has a great record over the past year, but its African competition isn't quite as strong as the competition countries on other continents face.
Meanwhile, Brazil is a legitimate contender to win the entire tournament, and I would even argue they're slightly underrated. That's why I'm comfortable backing them on the 3-way moneyline at -145. Scotland is being priced in this match as if they're much better than they are, and Haiti is far worse than they are, which I don't think is correct on either front.
Haiti has some impressive results over the past year, including a recent 4-0 friendly win against New Zealand. They also fought the United States to a tough 2-1 loss in the 2025 Gold Cup. Are they good enough to go on a deep run? Absolutely not.
Do they have the skill to upset a team like Scotland? Yes. Based on price alone, I'm going to back Haiti on the moneyline with the "draw no bet" option. I'm shocked we can get that at +360 odds.
Turkiye is a popular dark horse in this year's World Cup and for good reason. They are 8-1-1 in their last 10 matches, with results like a 2-2 draw against World Cup favorite Spain in a qualification match last year, and multi-goal wins against the likes of Bulgaria, Georgia, and North Macedonia. Turkiye has a ton of skill on its team, including Hakan Calhanoglu and Kerem Akturkoglu.
They're going to be too much for Australia to handle, so I'll back the Turks on the three-way moneyline. Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network.
He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.
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