Unless Russia breaks away from their misguided leader, a desperate and reckless Vladimir Putin will use Victory Day to rattle his last remaining sabers.
Putin’s over-reach in Ukraine has only strengthened global appreciation for “rules-based” order. The loose cooperative defense organizations that, from the outside, seemed weak, have, again, demonstrated their resiliency. In contrast to NATO’s tenacity, Russia’s coercive efforts have proven less than effective. While Belarus frantically works to distance itself from Russia’s disastrous invasion, Finland and Sweden are defying Russia’s bluster and openly—almost gleefully—preparing to join NATO.
Oligarchs, the showy public agents of Russia’s economy, are on the run. Their assets are under threat, and as they race to hide their yachts and foreign families, their corrosive efforts to promote corruption are on full display. While the parade won’t have quite the drama of Joseph Stalin’s desperate 1941 march from the Red Square parade ground into battle, Putin will certainly try to follow Stalin’s playbook by appealing to the “Russian Motherland” and shifting blame for his current debacle back on the “West”.
It is scary. Putin will likely use his bully pulpit threaten nuclear conflict and hope the subsequent uproar will overshadow his implementation of a deeply unpopular and disruptive national mobilization.
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