Ice cover is highly variable, but overall there are now fewer days with ice and coverage is decreasing at a rate of about 5% per decade.
The disappearance is less pronounced in Lake Michigan, and more so in Lake Superior, which is among the planet’s fastest-warming lakes.
The overall decline “doesn’t mean that we’re not going to continue to have high ice years,” Kessler said. Overall, Great Lakes coverage peaked in late February at about 56%, just above the long-term average.Lake Michigan, along with Lake Ontario, was an outlier. The other Great Lakes, particularly Lake Superior and Lake Erie, experienced above-average maximum coverage.Lake Superior, which generally hits maximum coverage later in the season, reached a peak of about 79% coverage in mid-March, up from an average 62%. The lake has continued to see above-average cover in recent days.
“Despite the fact that at this time of the year, it’s usually decreasing,” he said. “This particular year seems to be peaking even later than typical for Superior.” Lake Michigan’s ice coverage in the last week has been as low as 15% and as high as 22%. The lake’s surface temperatures are sticking close to the average going back to 1995 and are likely to begin the climb toward seasonal highs reached around August.
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