With razor-thin GOP margin, could House control flip to Democrats?

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With razor-thin GOP margin, could House control flip to Democrats?
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The question will be pressing as Congress returns next week.

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson speaks during a news conference following a closed-door caucus meeting at the U.S. Capitol Visitors Center on March 20, 2024 in Washington, D.C.Through history, a party's control of the House of Representatives has not changed in the middle of a session of Congress, though majorities have been slim before.

Former Republican Rep. Ken Buck of Colorado resigned on March 22 and House China Select Committee Chairman Mike Gallagher will leave Congress early on April 19. His seat will remain empty until after the 2024 election. The special election to fill New York Democratic Rep. Brian Higgins' seat is April 30, which is likely to give Democrats another seat. At this point, there would be 218 Republicans and 214 Democrats. But on May 21, there will be an election to fill former Speaker Kevin McCarthy's reliably red seat.

"I don't think it's impossible. I do think it's unlikely because I think as we move closer to the election, and people are listening to their folks back home, a lot of people on the Republican side are saying, 'You know, we're going to be listening to nominee Donald Trump on the Republican side, we're also going to be listening to members of our district.

That year, the GOP took control of the House and Senate -- and Gingrich was named the speaker. Under his speakership, what Fowler called the "Gingrich revolution" happened – "where committee chairs were pretty much brought to heel … and undermined, staff resources were shifted to the party leaders" and the speaker decided "who sits on which committees, who the chairs are going to be, and what comes to the floor or not.

Unification has not always been the name of the game as Johnson works to appeal to Republican hard-liners in his conference.Hult predicts there will be few issues where Republicans and Democrats will band together to move legislation out of the House."I think it'd be very difficult to find that narrow path in which they can find something to agree on," she said.

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