The pain of sharply smaller bonuses to tech investment bankers and advisers is expected to be felt throughout the Bay Area economy
The Bay Area’s dismal pace of companies going public or being acquired spells sharply lower bonuses for many investment bankers and advisers who often shepherd these companies onto Wall Street or into the arms of acquirers.
And that means bad news well beyond the bankers, given the number of accountants, lawyers and other professionals that work on these big deals. All that bonus money percolates through the Bay Area economy, finding its way into restaurants, retailers and real estate brokerages, to name just a few. That doesn't bode well for Tiffany, Tesla or the Tadich Grill. Bankers working on IPOs, especially in the tech sector, could see their bonuses cut almost in half, according to. Another financial sector expected to be hard hit is asset management, given that fees are often based on the value of assets under management, which fell sharply in the down market for stocks and bonds over the last 12 months. Those working in asset management could see their bonuses fall 20% to 25%, according to Johnson Associates’ projections., Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are among the investment banks contributing to the layoff of thousands. The decline in bonuses is all the more painful after 2021’s banner year, when the Fed’s low-rate policies fueled investor appetite for riskier assets such as freshly minted IPOs and high-growth tech stocks. The Fed has now shifted its policy in reverse, raising rates sharply in 2022 and taking other measures to fight the highest inflation in four decades. In 2021, a record year for IPOs by several measures, 64 Bay Area companies went public. But just five Bay Area-based companies made their public debuts that way in 2022. Traditionally, lining up M&A financing has been another lucrative business for Wall Street. But many of the M&A deals that got done in late 2022 relied on so-called private credit, including San Francisco private equity firm
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