The survey found an 11% difference in likely Republican voters’ support for the former president from a similar poll in May.
That’s an 11% increase from Berkeley IGS’s May survey — and would trigger the California Republican Party’s new rule allotting all of its 169 delegates to whichever candidate can secure a majority of the statewide vote in the upcoming primary election.
In comparison, 16% of likely Republican voters picked Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, 7% former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and 4% tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. A February Berekely IGS poll found 37% of registered Republican voters preferred DeSantis while 29% preferred Trump. “Even with all of his legal troubles, former President Donald Trump’s lead in the Republican primary looks more like what one expects to see from an incumbent running for reelection than for a candidate in an open seat,” said IGS co-director Eric Schickler. “While it remains early, it has to frustrate Trump’s opponents that his lead has grown even amid his series of indictments.” Dan Schnur, who teaches political messaging at USC and UC Berkeley, says the poll shows good news for Trump — as long as he can maintain that support among California’s GOP voters during the March 5 primary. “The state party clearly did this to help him, but now Iowa and New Hampshire are even more important,” said Schnur, noting the momentum from winning those early primary states coupled with California’s delegates would make Trump “unstoppable.”in late July. If no contender can secure a majority, then the delegates — the most from any state — will be distributed proportionally. Previously, candidates could win three delegates per congressional district, which could lead them to focus on certain pockets of the state.
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