Epidemiologists are weighing the significance of the latest omicron wave, and wondering how — if at all — it could change the course of the pandemic.
How many times have you heard a friend or family member say that in the last few weeks? The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has relaxed its isolation guidelines. Is it any wonder that some people appear to be letting their guard down, and dining out in crowded restaurants as a highly contagious variant blazes its way through schools, social venues and households?
Aaron Glatt, chair of the Department of Medicine at Mount Sinai South Nassau, is more optimistic. “We are seeing many, many more people getting infected, but thank God omicron is a less severe illness. We’re seeing less hospitalizations, less ICU admissions, less intubations and less death.” That’s as a proportion of new cases, which has reached a daily average of 678,271, up 271% over two weeks.
The next COVID-19 variant could be worse Public-health advisers obviously advise against throwing caution to the wind, and going out and mixing socially with other people indoors with no masks and little social distancing — and not only because of the impact people taking time off work would have on the economy. “Ideally, the less potential for omicron to spread, the less likely there will be for new strains to pop up,” Glatt told MarketWatch.
“If omicron does prove to be less pathogenic, then this may show that the course of the pandemic has shifted,” Sigal said in a statement. “Omicron will take over, at least for now, and we may have less disruption of our lives.” However, that’s a big “if” and perhaps an even bigger “maybe,” infectious disease doctors contend. It does not preclude more variants finding their way across the world.
The distant prospect of herd immunity The omicron wave could provide a wall of immunity for the more vulnerable people. “It certainly has the potential to infect many people and that could be a positive thing, at least they have immunity against COVID-19 or the omicron strain,” Glatt said. “That could theoretically bring us closer to herd immunity, and get around those who are not vaccinated.”
Ultimately, asymptomatic spreading is another “Achilles’ heel” and complicates any herd-immunity strategy where infected people are kept separate from the more vulnerable. The latter group, in reality, cannot remain house bound and without contact with anyone who is not considered vulnerable for months — possibly years — or however long it takes to reach the critical herd-immunity level.