Any recession would likely be months away and is far from a certainty
Talk of a recession is on the lips of many Americans this week after an eyebrow-raising moment in the market for Treasurys—U.S. government bonds—signaled that a recession may be on its way. But any recession would likely be months away and is far from a certainty.between 10-year and two-year Treasurys. It means that the two-year bonds had higher interest rates than 10-years, which is unusual. In fact, the last time the yield curve inverted on Treasurys it preceded the financial crash.
What is spooking investors is primarily the global economic slowdown. Weak economic data from Germany and China are the most recent warning lights to flash on the dashboard. The China-U.S. trade war, which appears to be escalating, is also a concern. through higher prices. The American agriculture sector is suffering from the damage to a large export market following retaliatory tariffs by Beijing.
—such as the buildup of inventory, meaning firms are storing goods and materials now rather than buy it later, and the slowdown in sales by private businesses—suggested that the economy, despite robust headline figures, is cooling off."We don't necessarily care about the inversion of the yield curve for its own sake.
The first is global manufacturing, which is in recession. There is weakness in manufacturing sectors the world over, including the U.S., Germany, and China. This is connected to weak business investment, and therefore less demand for capital goods. Auto sectors are hurting.
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