Iran has long struggled with infighting between reformists and hardliners, but a conservative leadership could bring “a more monolithic system”, which may “feel more confident in engaging with the West” says Ali Vaez, an Iran expert
Vaez noted that Iran’s “deep state” is also interested in keeping the nuclear deal alive to ease the country’s economic troubles, which have worsened under both US sanctions and the pandemic, which has hit the country badly, increasing inflation to 50 percent.
Now the restoration of the nuclear deal is pretty much on the horizon, Vaez says. “That is likely going to happen in the next few weeks,” he says. But Tehran will not announce it prior to June 18. Abdolnasser Hemmati, a moderate and the former head of Iran's central bank, speaks with journalists after registering his candidacy for the upcoming presidential elections in Tehran, Iran, May 15, 2021.
“It is also important to remember that the alternatives to restoring the deal are even less attractive for both sides,” Vaez observes. There are also other problems related to hardliners’ human resources. “The point is that they don't have the people to negotiate with others [Westerners],” Karimkhan says.
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