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will trim its target interest rate by the end of the year. But as economic growth endures and energy prices rise, market sentiment is pricing in fewer cuts.
“While it is not my baseline outlook, I continue to see the risk that at a future meeting we may need to increase the policy rate further should progress on inflation stall or even reverse,” she said. “This is a strong economy. Make no mistake, it is backed by debt and somewhat by overburdened credit cards, but it is a strong economy,” says George Lagarias, chief economist at Mazars.If the case for cutting rates is still premature, so is the view that the disinflationary trend has reversed.
Market sentiment is increasingly reflecting revised expectations. Fed funds futures have reduced the implied probability for a June rate cut to a coin flip – a conspicuous downgrade fromdata for March isn’t helping the doves’ case for rate cuts. Private-sector hiring picked up last month, again — rising by the most in ten months.
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