Shohei Ohtani's free agency will be HISTORIC ... but where will he go? 🤔 kileymcd polled 26 MLB executives, agents and insiders to find out ➡️
Ideally for Ohtani, he gets an enormous guaranteed total at a record-setting AAV from a team that he wants to stay with for a long time -- but we're talking about a rarefied area where he might not get all of those things from a preferred club, so I could see front offices trying to get creative given the unique risks and qualities that he offers.To understand what makes Ohtani so difficult to value, you need to understand how front offices go about valuing free agents.
But there has never been another player like Ohtani in free agency to use for a comparison. To quote one exec from our panel, he is"two different $35 million-a-year players," so a team is getting elite talent in two areas and saving a roster spot.David Schoenfield » Ohtani is also the rare player who will substantively change ticket sales, rights deals and sponsorships, so the team that signs him will be getting a guaranteed return on investment on top of what he does on the field.
There are some potential downsides for teams to consider, though, as the impact of an injury to a two-way player is greater, and projecting the likelihood of an injury is more complicated since there is no one else in baseball with a comparable workload. Whatever risk model a team is currently using is essentially worthless given all the elements at play.
This results in a bit of an inherent discount from his combined output as a pitcher and hitter, as no one thinks Ohtani will get a $70 million AAV -- even if some believe he could approach it.The high end of the free agent market has escalated the past two winters, with most top-of-the-market deals beating offseason projections, and now Ohtani enters as the ultimate prize.
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