If no deal could plausibly be attributed to the EU’s pigheaded obstinacy, the blame game might just work for Boris Johnson
month Boris Johnson proposed a deadline of October 15th for a free-trade deal with the European Union. If missed, both sides should “accept that and move on”. Yet he and the European Commission’s president, Ursula von der Leyen, decided on October 3rd to intensify trade talks, even though nobody now expects a deal next week.
The answer to the second question is that most deadlines are soft. But December 31st, the end of the standstill transition period, is far harder. Working backwards, it leaves very little time for a deal. The documentation runs to hundreds of pages, all needing translation and legal cleansing, and it must be approved by the European Parliament and national governments.
But not inevitable—which is why the talks continue. Recently Britain has even seemed more optimistic than the, perhaps to redirect blame for any failure. It should be possible to sort out state aid by putting in place a strictly monitored British regime to police it. And it would be preposterous to allow fisheries, which account for barely 0.1% of, to block a deal. Yet Mr Johnson’s unilateral changes to the withdrawal treaty have undermined trust.
The clauses could yet be removed during the bill’s parliamentary progress. And Mr Johnson may offer last-minute concessions to the, as he did last autumn to secure the withdrawal treaty. But his team insists concessions must come from the, not Britain. And Mr Johnson repeated this week that Britain could “more than live with” an Australia-type outcome, his euphemism for no trade deal, rather than the Canada-style free-trade deal it seeks.
Here lies the psychological risk that may ultimately lead to no deal. Since annoying disruption is bound to happen in any case, it is harder for Mr Johnson to blame the’s pigheaded obstinacy, the blame game might just work. And that is why, even as talks continue amid optimistic briefings, no deal remains much more likely than is often appreciated.
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