'Every model and study that we have seen, every public health policy in the world has said exactly the same thing': Face masks save lives. If everyone started wearing them in public, 25,000 fewer people would die in the next three months, one study says.
Benjamin Cowling, Professor and head of the Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics in the School of Public Health at the University of Hong Kong, has studied effects of face masks for ten years and co-wrote aadvocating more face mask usage in March. He says while he understands the authorities' desire to preserve supplies for medical workers, the messaging made the public distrust masks.
For both ASU and IHME's models, the proportion of deaths face masks could prevent differs from location to location and during different stages of the pandemic because transmission rates in the community at the time of projection affect outcomes. In IHME's model, the more people each infected individual can spread the virus to, the more deaths masking can prevent. It also projects that the virus would follow seasonal patterns and pick up again in the fall. Vos says this means places that have relatively safe levels of the spread now could see more pressure to contain the virus later.
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