Plan to target and deploy a wide receiver for your flex spot, a decision that should shape your late-round draft strategy.
Why? Running backs are often heavily reliant on volume and touchdowns to achieve high fantasy point totals. That means the difference in potential between running backs taken in the early rounds and those taken later becomes more pronounced, since there are so only so many carries and touchdowns to go around. And most tight ends are too touchdown-dependent to consider for the flex spot except in cases of emergency.
One way to illustrate why planning to use a wide receiver in the flex spots gives you a draft-day edge is by looking at impact values — a concept that helps us measure the significance of different factors in achieving high-scoring weeks. For example, let’s look at the data for running backs and wide receivers who score 30 points or more in a week, a total that would significantly boost your chances for a weekly win. The impact value for a running back selected in the first round producing a 30-point week is 3.4, meaning they’re about 3.4 times more likely to achieve such a high-scoring week than a running back picked at random. As the rounds progress, the impact value decreases.
So in general, wide receivers taken in the later rounds provide more consistent value than running backs. The specifics of which players you are drafting will matter, of course, and you’re unlikely to keep all your late-round picks for the full season, as injuries, waiver-wire additions and other changes lead to roster overhauls. Still, it’s worth knowing that you are better off planning to fill your flex spot with wide receivers — and acting accordingly during your draft.
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