In using racial appeals, the president is the latest in a generations-long line of politicians tapping into a dangerous vein in American politics. Via FiveThirtyEight.
Other issues didn’t show the same patterns. For example, attitudes toward trade weren’t predictive of backing the GOP candidate in either 2012 or 2016.
Grimmer and Marble also argued that any accounting of the role of racial attitudes in 2016 has to include who turned out or stayed home as well. For example, they report that the fraction of the overall electorate that was white, conservative and backed Romney in 2012 was actuallythan that backing Trump in 2016. In other words, it wasn’t the GOP base that put Trump over the top in 2016.
When analyzing the role of white Americans’ racial attitudes in electing Trump, it’s also key to distinguish the 2016 GOP primaries from the general election later that year. In an articlein the journal Political Behavior earlier this year, I used a separate panel survey to examine the activation of white voters’ prejudice — measured years before — in 2016.
Dan Hopkins is a professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania, and his research focuses on American elections and public opinion.
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