Market Analysis by covering: S&P 500, SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust, State Street® SPDR® S&P® Regional Banking ETF, State Street® Financial Select Sector SPDR® ETF. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com
Stocks slump on fading hopes for Iran peace talks; Nasdaq in correction territoryBig and small banks, private credit stocks, and credit card names have stabilized, offering hope to S&P 500 bulls.Earnings season is not far off, and upcoming technical trends will be critical to evaluate.
remains down about 3% on the month, with even worse performance from high-beta plays like U.S. small caps and emerging markets. But is there a glimmer of hope peeking through the cracks of this year’s worst sector?The narratives are well-known at this point. Big banks have been crushed amid fears of a growth slowdown, private asset management stocks have been hammered amid ongoing private credit turmoil, and even credit card service names have been creamed amid perceived AI infiltration and regulatory changes stemming from White House policy. has put in a series of lower highs and lower lows, XLF’s nadir was hit last Thursday. Furthermore, the Financial Select Sector Fund rose to a 13-calendar-day high at this week’s open.Next, let’s dissect relative price action. XLF: SPY has been a ski slope of broken dreams. Recall that throughout 2025, many, many pundits bought into the notion of deregulation, increased capital markets activity, and strong Main Street economics boosting profits for banks big and small. Well, price is the ultimate arbiter, and XLF has literally gone straight down and to the right compared to SPY going since last March. Is the trend ready to inflect?glean from the XLF:SPY relative performance chart is a notable rebound over the past two weeks. Intuition says that Financials, being a generally risk-on and cyclical play these days, would be among March’s laggards. But the reality is not so much, actually. At the moment, banks are stabilizing . You could win bets asserting that KKR and APO shares are having a great final month of the first quarter.) are another group off the mat. Despite growing recession fears, jumpy inflation expectations, and a flattening Treasury yield curve, KRE is 6% off its March and multi-month low. There’s still work to be done, but regional banks are a bellwether industry. The ETF continues battling its long-term 200-day moving average while defending critical support near $58. For now, the very recent absolute and relative strength are encouraging heading into Q2.Speaking of the calendar, maybe it’s not surprising to see so many Financials names catch a bid. An infamous Wall Street trend is for banks to rally into quarterly earnings, then get smacked .) is first among the major Financials sector companies to post Q1 numbers on Friday, April 10 BMO. Goldman Sachs is second on Monday morning, April 13. Then come the big banks: JPM, WFC, and C report before the bell the following Tuesday.Let’s finish up by zooming out. Notice in the chart below that XLF’s three-year look is not exactly ideal. There was a bearish death cross last week, while the RSI momentum oscillator at the top has been under 50 since early January. Now, with the 200-day moving average rolling over, the bears control the primary trend, even with some very near-term green shoots. Also, take a look at the volume-by-price profile on the left side of the chart. There’s a high number of shares traded above today’s level, making rally attempts all the more difficult for the bulls. All that hope put into XLF’s trend last year has become a technical burden.Long-term support is down at $42, a former high from January 2022 and where XLF reached a floor shortly after Liberation Day last April. If it were to test that spot, a 25% XLF decline would likely coincide with a technical bear market in the S&P 500. For now, $45 is resistance.XLF is not the most bullish chart out there, but there are short-term reasons for hope based on price action. Big banks’ shares have held their own, while the risky regional bank ETF has been more resilient than many traders may realize. I’ll be watching relative charts , along with performance leading into, and more importantly after, key Q1 earnings reports that begin hitting the tape in just a couple of weeks.: AI-managed stock picks every month, with several picks that have already taken off this month and in the long term.Investing.com’s AI tool provides real-time market insights, advanced chart analysis, and personalized trading data to help traders make quick, data-driven decisions.: This feature aggregates 17 institutional-grade valuation models to cut through the noise and show you which stocks are overhyped, undervalued, or fairly priced.From debt ratios and profitability to analyst earnings revisions, you’ll have everything professional investors use to analyze stocks in one clean dashboard.InvestingPro’s newest addition. It analyzes any asset’s chart with professional-grade market intelligence, identifying key timeframes, technical patterns, and indicators — then delivers a clear trading playbook with the levels, scenarios, and risks that matter most in under a minute. This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.Hope is when you wish for something to happen; sort of like when Trump hopes Iran will accept all his demands and that they will apologize for his attacking them, open the strait, and also insist he be awarded no less than 2 Nobel Peace Prizes…. And nevermind the private credit scandal where even a Blackrock fund has gone from 95 to ZERO percent. I wonder what reality will bring us next if hooe fails to pull through?Perhaps the war will end on Monday, oil will be back at 60, Larry Fink will say April fools, it was all a joke theres no private credit troubles. It can totally happen, im going all in bullish right now, don’t try to talk me out of it.Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes.and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website. 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