We explain how global fertility rates have shifted throughout history—and why they are changing faster than before
What social scientists refer to as the “demographic transition” has long been an essential feature of economic modernisation. In pre-industrial societies both birth and death rates were very high, and overall population growth was uneven and slow. But in the 18th century, death rates in parts of north-west Europe began to decline, marking the first stage of a seismic demographic shift. Falling death rates led to rapid population growth; Britain’s population roughly doubled between 1760 and 1830.
Demographic transitions today follow fairly similar patterns, reckon Matthew Delventhal of Claremont McKenna College, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde of the University of Pennsylvania and Nezih Guner of the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, in another new paper. The authors gather data on 186 countries, and find that all but 11 have experienced the transition to lower, more stable death rates that are well below pre-industrial norms.
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