Record warm ocean temperatures and a potential La Niña may create a “perfect storm” of conditions needed for major hurricanes, experts tell Nat Geo.
In 2018, Hurricane Florence was a Cat 4 that grew after passing over warm Atlantic Ocean waters. Forecasters think this season could be particularly active thanks to record warm waters and a La Niña climate pattern.
“Sea surface temperatures in what we call the main development region of the Atlantic…., off the coast of Africa to off the coast of Central America, are 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal,” says Rosencrans. “That’s a record value for February.” El Niño also makes Atlantic hurricanes less likely to form because it generates more wind shear and suppresses hurricane activity.
“How quickly that transition occurs can affect everything as well,” says DaSilva. “There's a lag time, so it can take a month or two for the full effects of the pattern to settle in. So, while we expect the transition to occur in mid-summer, it may not be until late summer or fall where we really see those effects across the Atlantic basin.”
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