I look at 4 metrics, market cap, profits, revenue and unit sales. Looking at when Tesla exceeds Ford in each of the 4 metrics!
Tesla received approval from the German government to open its gigafactory in Berlin,. This factory will take a while to ramp up, but the goal is to make 10,000 cars a week. 10,000 cars a week times 13 weeks in a quarter times a $50,000 ASP equals an extra $6.5 billion in revenue in 2023 if Tesla is able to ramp Berlin as hoped.. That factory could also supply $6.5 billion in revenue in 2023 if Tesla is able to ramp as hoped.
This year, Ford’s sales are down over 20% due to many small shutdowns due to chip and other supply chain issues. Those issues looked to improve this year before the Ukraine war, but now look to possibly get worse before they get better. For whatever reasons, legacy automakers have been more affected by these issues than Tesla and the other newer automakers.
The Electric Viking has similar thoughts. I started this article before this video came out, but he was quicker to publish his insights, so congrats to him!Unit volume will be the last of the 4 measures for Tesla to overtake Ford. In 2021, Tesla produced 930,422,only 4 years earlier in 2017 . As we previously mentioned when discussing revenue, Tesla now has the factories built to make 3.7 million vehicles a year.
Market cap was similar from 2016 to 2019, and then in 2020 the market decided Tesla was worth a lot more.
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