UFC betting expert Rohit breaks down why Sean Strickland is a value bet against Dricus du Plessis at UFC 312, despite being a significant underdog. He analyzes their previous fight, Strickland's striking style, and du Plessis' limitations.
Sean Strickland was a hair's breadth away from beating Dricus du Plessis last year but is a significant underdog in the rematch. That doesn't make sense to our UFC betting expert, who is targeting the Strickland via decision prop at UFC 312. I'm not somebody who thinks that Sean Strickland was 'robbed' in his split-decision loss to Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 297 last year.
That said, Strickland clearly won rounds 1 and 5 and it came down to a razor-close Round 3, which could have gone to either fighter. Du Plessis entered that previous bout as a slim +100 underdog and considering how close that clash was, it's surprising that the line for the rematch is so wide. Sure, du Plessis is coming off an impressive finish of former champ Israel Adesanya, but Strickland also beat Adesanya when he claimed the belt in 2023. Strickland also looked sharp in his last bout, a decision victory against Paulo Costa last summer. While that win against Costa was a split decision, the scorecard from Dave Tirelli was one of the worst I've ever seen, with the other two judges giving Strickland scores of 50-45 and 49-46. Strickland had a relatively small 182-158 edge in overall significant strikes against Costa. However, 104 of his significant strikes landed to the head while Costa was just 28 of 100 on significant head strikes. Strickland's ability to target the head while blocking shots to his own face gives him a significant advantage. He also landed an incredible 157 significant strikes to du Plessis' head in their previous bout and did plenty of visible damage while Dricus landed 81. Although du Plessis had six takedowns in that fight, he wasn't able to do anything with them since Strickland quickly fought back to his feet. DDP controlled Strickland for a grand total of two minutes with no submission attempts or ground strikes. If DDP is unable to do anything on the ground and can't land his winging power shots, this fight will likely come to volume and what criteria the judges value. That should make this bout lined closer to a pick'em, making Strickland the value side at +165. Strickland is a bit of a decision merchant and his usual path to victory involves pumping out his jab while relying on his striking defense and cardio. Six of his last seven wins have come by way of points and the lone knockout he had during that span came against an unranked Abus Magomedov. I could see du Plessis seeking out another decision or getting a finish, but if Strickland gets the victory it will almost certainly be via points. That gives plenty of upside to that prop at +250
Strickland Du Plessis UFC 312 Betting Odds UFC Predictions Striking Decision Wins
United States Latest News, United States Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
UFC 312 Fight Order Finalized: Dricus du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland Rematch Headlines EventUFC 312 is set to take place on February 8th in Sydney, Australia, with Dricus du Plessis defending his middleweight title against Sean Strickland in the main event. Weili Zhang defends her strawweight title against Tatiana Suarez in the co-main event.
Read more »
Dricus du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland 2 faceoff & ceremonial weigh-ins for UFC 312Check out a live stream of the ceremonial weigh-ins and fighter faceoffs for UFC 312: Dricus du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland.
Read more »
UFC 312 Weigh-In Results: Du Plessis vs. Strickland Rematch Set for SydneyUFC 312 is set for an exciting night of fights in Sydney, Australia. Middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis and challenger Sean Strickland will headline the event in a rematch. Strawweight champion Weili Zhang defends her title against Tatiana Suarez in the co-main event. The card also features several prospects making their promotional debut.
Read more »
Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland: UFC Fight Night Breakdown and Betting PreviewESPN betting expert Ian Parker provides in-depth analysis of the UFC Fight Night main event, exploring the key matchups and betting angles for the Adesanya vs. Strickland fight. Parker also offers his predictions and insights on other notable bouts on the card, including the Magomed Magomedov vs. Charles Oliveira clash.
Read more »
Dan Hardy Predicts 'Playlist' Advantage for Du Plessis in UFC 312 RematchDan Hardy, a renowned UFC analyst, breaks down the key differences between Dricus Du Plessis and Sean Strickland ahead of their middleweight title fight at UFC 312.
Read more »
UFC 311: Islam Makhachev Wants to Move Up to Face Dricus Du Plessis Following Big WinFollowing Islam Makhachev's big win at UFC 311, the pound-for-pound best fighter in the world wants to move up to face Dricus Du Plessis.
Read more »