SA’s economic future is looking decidedly bleak, with the most bearish of commentators pointing to a looming debt crisis, crumbling governance, social unrest and state failure. Political analysts, however, seem less pessimistic, writes NatashaMarrian.
South Africa’s economic future is looking decidedly bleak, with the most bearish of commentators pointing to a looming debt crisis, crumbling governance, social unrest and state failure. Political analysts, however, seem less pessimistic.
While the crisis of criminality is most loudly lamented by the well-heeled, it is the poor who bear the real brunt of lawlessness. Yet police minister Bheki Cele remains in his post. National police commissioner Fannie Masemola — himself accused of receiving expensive luggage as a bribe — continues to steer the often amateurish police service. President Cyril Ramaphosa appears weak and ineffective, hampered by his inability to take difficult decisions — and take them fast.
But, he adds, the ANC was on that downward path in any case, and Zuma merely hastened the slide by destroying institutions that had the capacity and capability to curb it. But set aside the picture of the country as a basket case. What can we expect politically in the short and medium term — in 2024 and beyond? And what of the fears driving some of the talk of state failure, of a governing “doomsday” coalition between the ANC and EFF that will set the country on the road to complete collapse?Qobo is tempered when it comes to the ANC’s prospects in next year’s national election, saying it is unlikely to slip below 50%.
Doing so would certainly mix things up. But whether the ANC has the moral backbone to make such changes “is a different story”, he says. It may be something of a thumb-suck, but he believes this scenario is more realistic than an ANC-EFF tie-up. there’s a possibility that a cataclysmic split takes place. That could split all other parties. It would roll through our political economy and reorientate everyone into a new system, which in a way is needed in our politics.”
“The idea of a deputy president Malema obediently working for a president Mashatile for five years would mean a total policy and perspective shift [from the EFF],” he says. “The moonshot pact would be a shot into the abyss and would not lift South Africa out of its malaise. Borain sees green shoots, such as the work done by Operation Vulindlela — a joint project between the National Treasury and the presidency targeting structural reforms to kick-start the economy. The fruits of the work are likely to become more visible by 2025, he says.
If anyone can pull the ANC back from the electoral brink, it’s Mbalula, whose organising and mobilising skills are unmatched in the organisation, say national executive committee leaders. His position as the organisation’s CEO has effectively placed him in a strategic role, and it is understood he is hard at work laying the groundwork for an ANC campaign unlike any seen before.
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