Trump has big advantages if he decides to run again, and that could lead to profound changes in security arrangements.
Share to twitterDonald Trump’s presidency has been so widely derided in the national media that a casual observer might easily conclude his prospects for reelection are dim. However, that is not what the odds makers are saying. They give Trump a solid edge over any Democratic candidate in 2020.
Second, Trump has presided over the strongest economy in living memory. Unemployment is at record lows, inflation is nearly non-existent, and new jobs are being created at a startling pace. Anyone who studies presidential politics knows that strong economies are the most important factor driving support for the incumbent. While growth may moderate between now and election day, few economists expect a recession anytime soon.
Fifth, polls showing weak approval of the president’s performance have lulled Democrats into thinking his defeat is nearly inevitable in 2020. But Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan were both unpopular during their first terms, and then went on to score landslide victories against opponents who made the incumbent look good. Surveys indicating that a majority of voters aren’t inclined to vote for Trump again are misleading, because we don’t know who his Democratic rival will be in 2020.
It’s hard to answer that question precisely without knowing which party will control Congress or what our various overseas partners and adversaries might do in the future. However, there is one critical consequence for global security that you can take to the bank if he wins reelection. The world order that America fashioned in the years after World War Two—the 40 years now known as the Cold War—will be finally and definitively done for.
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