An influential coronavirus model is projecting over 72,000 coronavirus deaths in the US by early August. Dr. Christopher Murray, who leads the team that did the modeling, explains why the latest projection has moved higher. CNNTownHall
A coronavirus model relied on by the White House task force is projecting that about 72,000 people in the United States will die from the virus by early August -- an increase from earlier estimates.
Dr. Chris Murray, who leads the team that did the modeling at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, told CNN's global town hall that the number has gone up"because we've seen these protracted peaks in some place," citing New York City as an example. "It took awhile for New York, for example, to come off the peak of deaths. Now fortunately it's on its way down. But we've seen that phenomena in a number of places," he said.
"We've seen states adding presumptive deaths to their deaths counts. Not all states are doing that. We're in this funny zone where we have confirmed deaths and states adding in quite a large number of presumptive deaths where people couldn't get tested before they passed away."How reopening factors in:
Murray said the model assumes that many people will continue to practicing social distancing until the end of May. It does not yet account for certain states and cities partially reopening."We know mobility is a driver of transmission, but at the same time we're seeing states ramping up their testing. The more you test, the more you find infectious individuals or even asymptomatic individuals and get them to isolate, the more you tamp down transmission," he said.
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