In this article, Jason Logan, a lead NFL betting analyst at Covers, discusses his Super Bowl LIX predictions. He analyzes the strengths of both teams, particularly the Chiefs' coaching staff and Super Bowl experience, and argues why he's betting on Kansas City to win outright and the Under on the total points scored.
Super Bowl LIX pits the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs against each other for the second time in three years. The Chiefs edged the Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII and opened as slight favorites for this rematch in New Orleans. They were 1.5-point favorites on look-ahead lines, and after escaping with the win over Buffalo in the AFC Championship, they opened as short as -1 and quickly climbed as high as -2.
The coaching combo of Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo has the advantage over Nick Sirianni, Kellen Moore, and Vic Fangio. And when it comes to Super Bowl experience, KC also has the advantage: not only in terms of navigating the two-week ramp-up to SBLIX but also in holding that psychological edge over the Eagles after ripping their hearts out in Super Bowl LVII.My first bet for Super Bowl LIX was taking Kansas City -120 to win outright on the moneyline (now -130), rather than laying the short points. This spread is on the other side of a one-point margin. That’s the seventh-most frequent finish in NFL games and I’d much rather avoid any hooks and just bet KC outright.The Over is always the most popular pick for Super Bowl games, with the gambling public wishing for an exciting and high-scoring showcase. Knowing this, there’s always a temptation to take the Under and go against an inflated number. Look-ahead lines had this Big Game pairing pegged with a total of 45.5 points before Philadelphia hung 55 on Washington in the NFC Championship. And even after that result, the look-ahead line before the AFC title game was 48.5 O/U. You have two very good defenses showing up in the Big Easy, with Fangio’s tricky schemes and Spags’ blitz-heavy attack ranking among the better stop units in the second half of the schedule. On top of that, both the Eagles and Chiefs can play a methodical offensive tempo and control possession. I’m leaning Under at 49.5 but hoping this total will tick up, with that public push on the Over. Once I see it hit the key number of 50, I'll be much more convinced to bet the Under
SUPER BOWL LIX CHIEFS EAGLES BETTING TIPS KANSAS CITY PHILADELPHIA UNDERDOG OVER/UNDER
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