Next 2 phases of solar growth. are solar costs drop below operating costs of fossil plants and costs drop below grid distribution costs.
I’ve been wanting to write this article for a while, but this post on X from Chamath Palihapitiya prompted me to action:
Those fossil fuel learning curves have run their course for the most part, and the costs of fossil fuels is rising both because of general inflation and more importantly because the easy-to-find-and-extract locations have mostly been exhausted. There is plenty of coal, oil, and natural gas left, but it is increasingly expensive to produce and also expensive to burn, especially as countries around the world pass laws regulating their usage as they learn about.
Why did I change the bar from solar to firmed solar? Because when solar is just a couple percent of your power, it doesn’t need to be firmed, since the rest of the grid has enough backup power to handle things when you aren’t producing; but as solar becomes a significant source, it needs to solve the intermittency issue.
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