After October 7, Israel is not interested in red lines, and tragically, Lebanon will probably come to know the horror of that.
Israel’s declared war aims now include creating a buffer zone in Lebanon and ensuring the safe return to their homes of 60,000 Israelis displaced from the north of the country.
The IDF is probably determined to hold Hezbollah to account for its attacks on Israel that resulted in widespread misery. Nor will Beirut be alone in that fate. Significant Lebanese infrastructure is likely to be targeted as part of Israel’s plan of attack.Hezbollah itself, having prepared for this day for the past 18 years, will feel confident in its ability to withstand the withering Israeli barrage that is unfolding.
It is likely that the answer to all three questions is a resounding no. History has shown that control of territory is key, and that involves going and taking it. Hezbollah will probably seek to provoke the IDF into invading Lebanon, and if that happens, the world will learn if there is any truth to Hezbollah’s boasting of its web of tunnels, sophisticated tactics and advanced capabilities.
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