The search for new uses for ethanol represents a pivot for an industry that has been powered by the force of the U.S. government for almost half a century.
Even with disputed environmental credentials, the federal government has subsidized corn ethanol as a way to curb tailpipe emissions and promote energy security.
But for now, ethanol has yet to be used for aviation fuel at commercial scale, and it’s not even clear whether ethanol-derived SAF will be eligible for tax breaks.The clock is ticking. Ethanol consumption is set to plummet 12% by the end of this decade and almost 90% by 2050, according to BNEF, mirroring a drop in gasoline demand as EVs become more popular and gasoline engines more efficient.
“It is a good thing to have another player bidding on our grains by the river, but if the government has to pay for it, is this really a profitable long-term plan?” the second-generation farmer said. Biden signaled support for crop-based SAF in a July speech, saying he expects farmers to provide 95% of all SAF in the next two decades. The White House is calling for sustainable jet fuel output in the U.S. to jump to 3 billion gallons a year by 2030, up from 15.8 million last year.
There’s a long way to go. Overall, sustainable jet fuel accounts for less than 0.1% of the fuel used by major U.S. airlines.
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