Even before the Middle East tragedy, the sudden shift in interest rates had begun to expose serious problems in the global economy. That's now suddenly escalated, writes business editor Ian Verrender.
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Buffeted by geopolitical forces on three fronts — Russia, China and now the Middle East — the immediate fallout from these regional conflicts has sent short term shock waves through commodity markets. While the index isn't anywhere near the levels of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis or the 2020 lockdowns that accompanied the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, it has been climbing in recent weeks.According to Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief adviser and President of Queens' College, Cambridge, we've been lucky that each time markets have overshot, they've quickly attracted a correcting action from investors rather than trigger some kind of breaking point.
While that is true, soaring oil prices accompanying the Ukraine invasion was one of the catalysts for the huge inflation spike that has yet to be tamed. And with global economic growth prospects already tepid at best, another massive spike would be unwelcome to say the least. It's not just households in a world of pain. Governments and corporations across the globe have borrowed heavily in recent decades as interest rates plummeted.
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