If it feels a lot like 1990, there’s a good reason. As Philip_Elliott writes, the echoes from one-term President George H.W. Bush should worry Joe Biden’s team as they had into the midterms and possible re-election
from his right flank on taxes, the first President Bush still lost his re-election bid in 1992 despite some of the highest polling seen since Lyndon Baines Johnson stepped in after the assassination of John F. Kennedy. Bush 41 stood at almost 74% approval at this point in his term. Biden, by contrast and facing many of the same thematic challenges of late-Cold War politics, sits at just better than 41%. One of those 41s is sexier than the other in the political universe.
Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, who is on the ballot this year and this week visited the southern border to back a Trump-era immigration policy.for new hires. The possibly-post-COVID-19 environment could give the U.S. economy generation-changing power. But at the same time, inflation is a very real drag on the lived experiences of voters. The Consumer Price Index change, to be a nerd for a minute, is almostwhat it was when H.W. lost his re-election bid.
All of which is to say this: Bush 41 and Biden came to the White House after decades working the Washington systems they knew so well. Both foreign policy heavies who spent eight years as the understudies to the presidency itself, they seemed like some of the most prepared candidates for the job ever to take their oaths. Early wins abroad teed up their reelection bids. But an American public indifferent to global affairs and a glitchy mismatch of economic factors soured sentiment at home.
Sure, many Presidents with sleepy polling at this point in their first terms went on to win second terms. Barack Obama and Ronald Reagan were both parked in the 40s at this same point, for instance. But there aren’t a lot of examples in the modern era of a President turning around his standing from this low of an ebb, especially if the midterms are going to be as brutal for Democrats as analysts anticipate. A blowout election doesn’t exactly inspire confidence or bring tailwinds.
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