Why GDP is likely to show a more wobbly U.S. economy in the third quarter

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Why GDP is likely to show a more wobbly U.S. economy in the third quarter
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Yes, the answer is the trade war -- but you'll want to watch some specific areas for signs of what's to come.

The massive U.S. economy was unable to escape any harm from a trade war with China and a deteriorating global outlook during the summer. Growth likely slowed for the second quarter in a row.

Consumers still king There’s no way Americans could keep spending like they did in the spring, when outlays surged 4.6%. Since 2000 consumer spending has risen an average of 2.4% a quarter. CEOs and small-business owners cut back on hiring and investment in the third quarter and are more hesitant to make big plans until the dispute is resolved. Many firms have experienced disruptions in supply lines or faced higher costs owing to stiff U.S. tariffs and retaliatory Chinese sanctions.

Higher trade gap no help The U.S. trade gap appears to have widened slightly in the third quarter as imports outpaced exports. If so, a bigger trade gap will cut GDP further down to size

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