'From the standpoint of demonstrating the ability to win elections, the midterms couldn’t have gone any better for DeSantis.' via FiveThirtyEight
of early primary polls that I referred to earlier found that the polls have more predictive power if you adjust them for name recognition. DeSantis’s name recognition is high, but not universal like Trump’s.
For example, a Quinnipiac Universityfrom July found that 35 percent of voters hadn’t heard enough about DeSantis to form an opinion about him. So I don’t know how much longer “just trust the polls” will be an argument in Trump’s favor. They may go through some wild swings in response to the midterms and Trump’s 2024 announcement. But given Trump’s much wider name recognition, having DeSantis polling fairly close to Trump — or even ahead in some surveys — doesI’ll probably publish about a million stories between now and the first primaries about how much the views of Republican “party elites” matter. By that phrase, which is borrowed from the book “,” I refer to influential Republicans and conservatives ranging from elected officials to talk-show hosts. It’s important to clarify that by “party elite,” I’m not necessarily referring to some fuddy-duddy senator who was first elected to office 40 years ago, but rather the broader universe of Republicans and conservatives that GOP primary voters might find trustworthy. Some media figures who were pro-Trump and anti-establishment in 2016 have begun
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