Huge winter rains and snow are continuing to reduce fire risk, experts say.
A firefighter sprays flames approaching Gilman Springs Road during the Rabbit Fire late Friday, July 14, 2023, in Moreno Valley, Calif. California is off to its slowest start to fire season in 25 years.
While fire agencies often warn that extra rain can help fuel fire danger, an analysis of 30 years of rainfall and wildfire records by the Bay Area News Group shows that wildfire risk in California is much higher after dry winters, and lower after wet winters like this year’s. “My prediction has been that we are going to be below normal for wildfire this year,” said Craig Clements, director of the Fire Weather Research Laboratory at San Jose State University. “And that’s what we’re seeing right now.”
Typically, if a winter was dry, fire officials will say that summer fire risk is high because the landscape is dry and primed to burn. “Grass fires aren’t usually a big problem for Cal Fire,” Clements said. “They can get on grass fires really quickly, and retardant drops work well on them. The fact we have more grass isn’t going to make or break our fire season. What makes or breaks our fire season is the big fuels — the forests, the trees and the heavy shrubs.”
Skiers wearing shorts frolicked at Lake Tahoe on July 4th. Mammoth Mountain ski area in the Southern Sierra is open this weekend. Lunder, who has worked for the past 25 years developing fire mapping and fire behavior models, said that as the climate has warmed, some public officials and climate activists have given the incorrect message that every year is going to be catastrophic. But local weather conditions like wind, lightning, soil moisture and availability of firefighting resources are still key, he said.
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