Why Buffett's bet on Japan could turn on higher inflation, weakening dollar
“The inflation cocktail is being mixed and Buffett is migrating his investment to where you can create value through inflation,” said Bill Smead, chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management, which invests nearly 3% of its assets in Berkshire. “These are companies that will make more money if the price of oil [or] any input goes up.”
At the same time, lower valuations and a continued decline in the U.S. dollar, now near a two-year low, could make Japan and other international markets more attractive for U.S. investors, said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group. Expectations of dollar weakness bolster the case for U.S. investors to own international equities if profits get a boost from the strength of the currencies they are denominated in.
Buffett, who at Berkshire’s annual meeting in May professed optimism in the U.S. ability to persevere through the pandemic, has looked outside the country before, having bought such companies as Israel’s IMC International Metalworking and German motorcycle apparel retailer Detlev Louis. “Buffett certainly loves the United States,” said James Armstrong, president of Henry H. Armstrong Associates, which invests one-fourth its assets in Berkshire.
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