An Institute for the Study of War report has said that Belarusian forces remain 'extraordinarily unlikely' to invade Ukraine due to serious limitations.
according to Kyiv—will undermine future joint operations. Elite Russian units, ISW wrote,"now likely lack the capability to operate in combined formations with Belarusian forces and likely are unable to operate effectively in combined operations.
" "Belarusian forces would likely have to operate together with poorly trained mobilized Russian personnel if they entered the war in Ukraine," the report read."The outcome of efforts to form and use such combined units in combat is likely to be poor." Belarusian opposition leaders have long predicted that the military would refuse an order from Lukashenko to join the war in Ukraine. ISW noted that"friction within the Belarusian military" has likely worsened due to Russia's efforts to pressure Minsk into joining the invasion, citing reports from Ukrainian intelligence and other sources of tensions between Belarusian troops and Russians stationed in the country. "Belarusian personnel are certainly aware of the significant losses that Russian forces suffered in Ukraine and likely do not wish to experience the same result," ISW wrote."Belarusian units likely know that their units and the Belarusian military as a whole would not fare better than Russian units that were far more capable and well-trained." Broader societal unrest is also staying Lukashenko's hand, ISW suggested. Lukashenko was able to suppress mass protests against the 2020 presidential election in Belarus, but the pro-democratic opposition remainsand its networks within the country are still strong. Minsk has also faced recent physical and cyber partisan attacks on infrastructure. Above, a Ukrainian border guard scouts with a monocular near the Ukrainian border with Russia and with Belarus on November 3, 2022. A Belarusian invasion could not"seriously threaten Kyiv," the ISW said."Lukashenko does not intend to enter the war in Ukraine due to the possibility of renewed domestic unrest if his security apparatus weakened through participation in a costly war in Ukraine," ISW wrote."Committing a substantial amount of that security apparatus to the war in Ukraine would likely leave Lukashenko open to renewed unrest and resistance." "Lukashenko is also likely aware that invading Ukraine would undermine his credibility as the leader of a sovereign country as it would be evident that Russia's effort to secure full control of Belarus had succeeded." Even if Lukashenko was to ignore such risks, his military"would not be able to do more than draw Ukrainian ground forces away from other parts of the theater temporarily given the extremely limited effective combat power at Minsk's disposal," ISW wrote. "ISW has previously assessed that a Russian or Belarusian offensive from Belarus would not be able to cut Ukrainian logistical lines to the West without projecting deeper into Ukraine than Russian forces did during the Battle of Kyiv, when Russian forces were at their strongest," the report read."A Belarusian invasion could not make such a drive, nor could it seriously threaten Kyiv." "Belarus will continue to help Russia fight its war in Ukraine even though Lukashenko is highly unlikely to send his army to join the fighting," the report concluded."Belarus can offer material to Russia that Russia cannot otherwise source due to international sanctions regimes against the Russian Federation that do not impact Belarus."
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